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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

Risk: In addition to having significant revenue at risk in China from future legislation changes (or enforcement of current legislation), I wonder if $NVDA may end up held liable for looking the other way as chips it sold ended up in China illegally. If fined for the value of all past sales, that could be many tens of billions of dollars. From @SemiAnalysis_ on Jensens ousting and illegal chip sales to China: “Our data shows more than 1.5GW of Nvidia chips, which are restricted, still ultimately ended up in China. This figure doesn’t even include chips that Nvidia created to circumvent US rules, a story we originally broke. We believe the US intelligence community is a large part of the push to get Jensen out of Nvidia. Specifically, we believe it is likely that RASA or similar legislation, which has already passed the house, will move forward. AI and chip restrictions on China are going to ramp now much faster with the biggest defender Jensen, gone.”
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Yes and no lol, valuation and dividend yield are attractive currently (I added a few days ago ~$88), macro continues to trend in the right direction, I do hate $PDD just entered Kazakhstan, BUT what I surface level read is they can coexist well and $KSPI has a different approach than them from someone who I think is smart, pretty sure was @Benceno88 if you may elaborate friend. Also $KSPI management team will continue to find ways to pull rabbits out of the hat and grow within KZ, the most recent grocery vertical being an example
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

DigiPowerX $DGXX said on October 13 that it "did not issue any shares" under its ATM program in Q3. $DGXX's Q3 10-Q, filed November 13, shows 2.85M shares issued for cash in Q3 for $11.3M, and counts them among the 30.8M shares it sold through the ATM in the first nine months of 2026. The share count rose 46% this year, from 69.4M at the end of 2025 to 101.4M as of November 12. The 10-Q also shows three details the Q3 earnings release left out: 1) Prepayment: Cerebras $CBRS, the AI chipmaker that's the tenant at $DGXX's Columbiana data center campus in Alabama, paid a $12M upfront charge in Q3 for building Phase 1. The charge can be refunded, less what's been spent on finished construction, in some cases before Phase 1 starts, including if $DGXX misses the final delivery date. 2) Spending: $145.5M went into property, equipment, and equipment deposits in the first nine months, paid for with $170.8M of net share sales. 3) GPUs: Equipment deposits rose to $23.9M from $8.5M at the end of 2025, and the 10-Q mentions next-generation $NVDA Vera Rubin systems $DGXX has "committed to purchase," without an amount. $DGXX's Q3 revenue rose 85% q/q to $12.2M, but its $1.0M of net income leaned on $8.6M of gains on its crypto and warrants. Cash was $95.2M and bitcoin and ether were $24.5M as of September 30. $DGXX also expects to close a $200M loan syndicated by Goldman Sachs $GS in Q4 2026 to finish Columbiana, with an unsecured $DGXX guarantee until construction is done. Even with the cash, crypto, and loan, $DGXX is ~$30M short of its 2027 plan (~$350M of capex, mostly for ~10 MW of AI inference capacity and Columbiana's Phase 2) before any Q4 2026 spending. $DGXX expects customer deposits and prepayments to be a main source of funding, and it has already sold $174.7M of the $175M its ATM prospectus covers. At $2.28/share, $DGXX's market cap is ~$231M, an EV of ~$112M after its cash and crypto. If Phase 1 is ready on December 15 as planned, Cerebras starts paying in January 2027, and its $12M prepayment can no longer be refunded.

Investor Letters

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The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

NVDA $3.9TAIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

Qualcomm Custom ASICs?

Qualcomm’s Alphawave SerDes, CPU cores and HBC could support custom AI ASICs as hyperscalers build heterogeneous fleets beyond GPUs.

QCOM $185B
Chipstrat 4 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (11/13/2026)

Tripadvisor’s CEO and CFO will depart after weak Q3 results, while Roblox’s CEO discusses AI and Berkshire repurchases $9.6 billion of…

RBLX $36B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
UHS · long

Universal Health Svcs INC

Universal Health Services is a profitable hospital operator whose $146 share price over-discounts an earnings-collapse scenario.

UHS $11B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis

Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed…

LULU $12B
Hated Moats 3 clicks

The Five Deals That Made Apollo

Apollo Global Management’s five defining deals, from Executive Life to Intel, built a $1 trillion asset manager spanning insurance and…

APO $73B
Net Interest 1 click

In Conversation: NVIDIA

NVIDIA sees inference, agentic workloads and robotics broadening AI compute demand beyond hyperscalers, while high-speed memory shortages…

NVDA $3.9T
Aurelion Research 1 click

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