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Friday, November 13, 2026

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Nvidia’s Future | My Question Marks

Nvidia’s future is framed around alleged China GPU diversion, tighter export controls and supply-chain risk after Jensen Huang’s claimed resignation.

NVDA $4T
P Equity Research

From X

@leevalueroach 1 click

Lee Roach on X

The market's greatest gift this year to me was when $EVC posted a killer Q2 and the market sold it off as a dying radio company. It allowed me to buy even more when the piggies were panicking. Volatility is the greatest gift to active fundamental investors. People's brains have been fried from constant dopamine releases from social media and need instant gratification. No one can hold a business for the long term anymore. If you can, that is your competitive edge.
@gnoble79

George Noble on X

From my friend Mr. X: As Anthropic apparently starts their road show, which I would call “We Work Part Deux.” Remember, as I said before, We Work cut their valuation 3x, still couldn’t get it done, and then eventually ended up bankrupt. And in my view, We Work and Adam Neumann had better governance and were a better deal, for a variety of reasons. And that was before everything started coming undone and prior to policy heading in the wrong direction and prior to the head of the central bank of NVDA, who is also financing them, was caught canoodling with a Chinese spy. This is why it does not work. This is not .COM or railroads. The $ are being spend on an incredibly dis-economic technology that will decay as opposed to sticking around. This is rapidly depreciating immature broken software and compute that is the equivalent of UNIX, SPARC, and VAX or a Mainframe. Then, the more they are spending, the less they are getting. It is sort of like the impact of every incremental dollar of debt on GDP, very diminishing marginal returns. There is no scaling. If the underlying technology does the opposite of scaling, the business cannot scale. Said simply, cost per unit is going way up (Anthropic’s S-1 tells you this too), revenue per unit is plummeting. See this tweet and subtweet: [] More on Jensen the China lobbyist: [] ICYMI re my last: $NVDA @JG_Nuke @DougKass @edzitron @MacrostrategyP @GaryMarcus
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

$life anyone long? seems like the incremental margins could rapidly decouple as business becomes more 3rd party. also wondering what their ultimate edge is. if they are just providing a technological convenience to insurance providers, seems like a weaker customer value prop. if they have some secret sauce for generating great insurance terms quickly, that would be a bit better. i don't know a lot about how it all works and the incentives they have vs incentives that insurers have but one thing for sure is that profits are on trend to grow much much slower than revenues and it's trading at a very high multiple. if anything goes wrong with rev, the stock could collapse. even in the last quarter they beat and raised and the stock went down. very interesting.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

From $14.47/share, you’re risking a $4.66 loss (-32.2%) on Quantum $QMCO in my bear case for a $20.40 gain (+141.0%) in my bull case, before any fallout from the CFO firing, which none of the three cases counts. Here’s where $QMCO’s stock could be by mid-2027 in my bear, base, and bull cases. I value each case on FY2028 revenue (year ending March 2028), since the market will be pricing that year by then. Each case’s value is FY2028 revenue times the multiple, plus the $77.0M of cash, over 44.6M diluted shares (44.7M in the bull case). Bear case ($9.81, -32.2%) The bear case assumes $IBM’s drive supply stays flat, Toshiba’s added capacity ends the disk shortage that helped push customers toward tape, and the “temporary benefit from higher pricing” $QMCO got in the June quarter fades. That implies FY2028 revenue of $300M, 8.5% below the $328M annual run rate in September-quarter guidance, at 1.2x, the multiple at the $9.42 PIPE price, for a value of $9.81/share. Base case ($17.89, +23.6%) The base case assumes $IBM raises drive output gradually through 2027, letting $QMCO ship more of its backlog each quarter. That implies FY2028 revenue of $360M, 9.8% above the $328M run rate, at 2.0x, a discount to $HPE’s 2.3x TTM revenue (as of October 27) for $QMCO’s open material weaknesses, for a value of $17.89/share. I use $HPE rather than $IBM (4.2x), since most of $IBM’s revenue comes from software and consulting rather than hardware. Bull case ($34.87, +141.0%) The bull case assumes $IBM ramps drive output early in 2027, the backlog converts quickly, and more hyperscalers (the largest cloud and internet companies) buy $QMCO’s Scalar i7 tape library. For reference, CEO Hugues Meyrath said the i7 deal $QMCO won from a hyperscaler in Asia-Pacific in the June quarter was valued at “well over eight figures.” That implies FY2028 revenue of $400M, 22.0% above the $328M run rate, at 3.7x, the multiple at my August update, for a value of $34.87/share. Winning more hyperscalers would also make $QMCO even more dependent on a few customers. Its top five customers made up 27% of FY2026 revenue, up from 21% in FY2025, and one customer made up more than 10%, when none did in FY2025. But the takeaway is that even the bull case, with faster $IBM supply and August’s multiple, lands just 1.1% above the $34.50 peak.

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