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Friday, November 13, 2026

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From X

@Mr_Neutral_Man

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

SFR REIT VineBrook Stops Buybacks, Flags Upcoming Maturities @LeylaKuni I talk about REITs because stuff like this happens. VineBrook is a nontraded REIT which claims a NAV of $50 but tenders for shares at $33/share. Average home is expected to sell for $129k each. You can get Single Family Home Exposure by buying $INVH which is operating from a position of strength by selling homes between $300k/home to $600k/home to buy back their stock trading at $270k/home. Pays a dividend of 4.5%, covers interest payment 4.1 times, and bought back $1 billion of shares since Q4 of 2025 or roughly 6.1% of the S/O. I think shares are worth $37 to $50 and you can buy shares for $26/27!!! ********************************* From Bisnow The nontraded single-family rental home REIT also disclosed that it has $650.8M of debt maturing within a year, and it doesn’t have liquidity to satisfy those obligations, AltsWire reported. VineBrook owned about 20,500 single-family rental homes in 21 states as of Sept. 30. Its occupancy fell from 94.7% to 93.5% year-over-year, but its average monthly rent rose from $1,339 to $1,460, AltsWire reported. The REIT’s board approved a change to stop processing share repurchase requests on Oct. 26, three weeks after completing the $30M tender offer at $33 a share. That was 34% below the per-share net asset value of about $50 on Sept. 30. The $30M would buy about 909,000 shares, but about 2.75 million shares were tendered but not withdrawn before the offer expired Oct. 5. The REIT said shares not purchased would be returned. The tender offer was VineBrook's first broad liquidity opportunity since it suspended its share repurchase plan in December 2022, except in cases of death, disability or similar hardship, AltsWire reported. The new share buyback halt doesn’t include those exceptions. VineBrook also disclosed that it has two MetLife notes that will mature in March and August, a JPMorgan Chase acquisition facility maturing in July, and convertible notes maturing in June, all contributing to the $650.8M of debt coming due within a year. The company is in discussions with potential lenders and expects to refinance the MetLife loans before maturity. Options to satisfy the obligations include partial loan paydowns, using extension options and selling homes. It has a one-year extension option on the JPMorgan facility. VineBrook plans over the next year to sell about 2,700 homes in its main portfolio for roughly $348M and sell 1,050 homes in its NextPoint Homes portfolio for about $284M. The REIT sold more than 2,300 homes between its two portfolios during the first nine months of this year, generating about $351M. Pretium Partners, another SFR company that manages more than 90,000 homes, agreed this week to pay $49.7M to settle charges from the Federal Trade Commission regarding misleading rental pricing practices. Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, or BREIT, wrote down $496.7M tied to 14 commercial properties and various single-family homes during Q3, up significantly from $27.4M over the same period a year earlier.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

I personally love $AXTI here, even after I watched my position round trip $13 -> $140 -> $45. $100m->$500m in near term backlog driven by ordinary near term orders Annualized P/E compressed down to 18.8x Q4, before 2027 capacity expansion and price hikes. Now with confirmed counterparty visibility with $LITE and $COHR (before it was speculation). Of course China risk is always a wildcard, especially with the $NVDA scandals + China hawks in Washington. But fundamentally, it’s been in its best shape ever and I’m proud watching AXT grow up
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Good question! $SIVE pre-2026 targeted custom CPO deployments like Ayar. Many of these architecturally were pushed back to 2028. Only Q3 2025, did Sivers shift to mass commercialization products, with 7 new pluggable players, including $JBL H1 2026. Sivers is also sampling NPO 200mW lasers with a series of players and hints at future 400mW capabilities for CPO. Since Sivers previously focused on custom scale up CPO players, then only recently applied their technology to near term pluggables and NPO commercialzable opportunities. They missed a lot of deployment windows others are capitalizing on now. But I think everything comes together H2 2027. I think optical TAM keeps exponentially increasing into 2030, so even if they missed 2026 or early 2027 deployments… market capture opportunity is very large relative to valuations $SIVE in my opinion is the golden goose of optical opportunities but it all comes down to to management execution, which has been slightly disappointing as of recent.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Following the $MRVL and $LITE acquisition announcement… Samsung Electronics has been doing vertical integration of their own in photonics to thermal: - New report from Bloomberg states that Samsung Electronics is in talks to buy $MOD Modine. Which supplies thermal/cooling infrastructure for AI data centers. - 2 days ago from Digitimes, Samsung has purchased series of silicon photonics patents from Rockley Photonics (that previously was bankrupt). Covering modulators and PICs, mainly around design and integration. This follows earlier leaks that “Samsung is reportedly considering acquisitions in the silicon photonics space” After Samsung’s reportedly pursues optical engine and PIC manufacturing by 2027, and CPO services by 2029. We’ll likely see this trend accelerate with M&A vertical integration across AI supply chains. Especially considering valuations from smaller upstream companies collapsed recently, despite their strategic significance.

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