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Friday, November 13, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

It's been overwhelmingly negative recently, but here's some perspective on how supply-constrained demand from $LITE to $MU looks amid possible AI capex slowdowns. As one Korean executive on memory puts it: "Thirty people are already lined up at a restaurant that is full, and five of them leaving does not create a table." The amount of tables might expand, but supply shortages and price hikes in bottlenecks can persist through capex slowdowns or capacity buildout. From AI implications in medicine, physics, materials, robotics, cybersecurity, engineering, energy, to AI itself over the next 5-10 years... We've only reached the precipice of the next technological paradigm shift. The world is going to need a lot more compute.

Investor Letters

All letters

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $35B
Daniel Romero 5 clicks

Nvidia’s Future | My Question Marks

Nvidia’s future is framed around alleged China GPU diversion, tighter export controls and supply-chain risk after Jensen Huang’s claimed…

NVDA $4T
P Equity Research 4 clicks

Qualcomm Custom ASICs?

Qualcomm’s Alphawave SerDes, CPU cores and HBC could support custom AI ASICs as hyperscalers build heterogeneous fleets beyond GPUs.

QCOM $190B
Chipstrat 3 clicks
BW · short

Babcock & Wilcox

Babcock & Wilcox is priced for AI power demand despite a one-time related-party project, with FY2028 EBITDA 35% below consensus implying…

BW $704M
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Why I Agree With Rob Vinall on Wix

Wix’s paying-subscriber conversion fell from 2.72% to 2.01% since 2019, while Business Solutions drove growth and activist-led cost cuts…

WIX $2.8B
Ezra's Notes 1 click

Not So Fast

Entravision, the portfolio’s largest position, fell more than 40% from its highs as Q3 returns dropped to 37.8% YTD.

EVC $870M
The Mikro Kap 6 clicks

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