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Friday, November 13, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Root’s $ROOT policy count has barely moved since June, so I looked at the two levers the car insurer is counting on to grow again. $ROOT began rolling out its new pricing model in Q4, which it expects to be its biggest jump in predictive power yet. CEO Alex Timm said it should lower average premiums by “maybe a couple of points” while “meaningfully increasing conversion,” and the rollout runs through H1 2027. $ROOT also entered New Jersey in July and then Wyoming, bringing it to 38 states, and targets being near national by the end of 2027, with the larger new states coming last. Timm said New Jersey was Root’s most successful state launch yet in new business per capita. Both levers make sense, but neither shows up in the numbers this year. The new pricing model only grows premiums if the extra conversion and retention outweigh the lower prices, and the states Root hasn’t entered yet cover just ~18% of the U.S. population. So I’d expect policies to stay roughly flat until the rollout finishes in mid-2027.
@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

QXO's $QXO CEO Brad Jacobs just announced his ninth company, which he'll run as chairman and CEO while keeping both roles at QXO. His firm, Jacobs Private Equity, is putting $900M of a $1B investment into CKX Lands $CKX, a small Louisiana land company that will be renamed and operate "in an industry to be determined," in a deal expected to close in early 2027. Jacobs started $QXO the same way in 2024, when his firm put $900M of a $1B investment into SilverSun Technologies, a small software reseller, and renamed it QXO. $QXO pre-released its Q3 results on November 9, three days before its full report, for a call that also covered Jacobs' new venture. Q3 sales rose 79% y/y to $4.90B, and adjusted EBITDA rose 85% to $557M, lifting the margin to 11.4% from 8.4% in Q2. In my August 16 update, I wrote that TopBuild, the insulation distributor and installer $QXO bought on July 1, would be the first acquisition that lifts the blended margin rather than pulling it down. TopBuild made an 18.4% adjusted EBITDA margin on $6.2B of sales in 2025, or ~$285M/quarter on ~$1.55B. If TopBuild earned that average in Q3, the rest of $QXO (its roofing business plus Kodiak, the lumber and building materials distributor it bought on April 1) made ~$272M on ~$3.34B of sales, an ~8.1% margin. That's the same $272M as Q2, and less than the $301M $QXO made in Q3 2025, before it owned Kodiak or TopBuild. So unless TopBuild fell short of its 2025 pace, the margin gain came from what $QXO bought, not from Jacobs improving the businesses it already owned. Jacobs says ending his $XPO, $GXO, and $RXO chairmanships in 2025 gave him the capacity for CKX. $QXO also named Ken West, who led three business segments at Honeywell $HON, president and COO as of September 1 to run its day-to-day operations. At ~$13.50/share, even after a ~17% jump on November 9, $QXO still trades in the low-to-mid teens my June 7 deep dive had as the bear case, where margins stall. The ~$24.60 base case, where combined margins move toward 14% by 2028, would be an ~82% gain. What I'd want to see from here: 1) TopBuild: Its Q3 adjusted EBITDA, if the November 12 report breaks it out, to confirm what the rest of $QXO earned. 2) Leverage: Net debt as of September 30 vs. the $7-9B I estimated in June, with Q3 interest expense up to $163M from $38M in Q2. 3) Management: Whether any $QXO executives move to CKX before the deal closes in early 2027.
@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Yeah, if you're focused on some sort of biofuel or energy play - $GPRE is almost certainly the best play from this point on. $ANDE just paid 4.25x ethanol assets that are very similar to what GPRE has. GPRE likely $30 if not $40+ by end of 2027 especially with higher likelihood of year-round E15 getting passed and with CA E15 beginning 1/1/2027. Plus GPRE spoke on call that they're likely buying back shares from this point on. By end of Q4 GPRE will be in a net cash position, including unmonetized 45Z credits, and is trading at like 3x 2027 EBITDA.
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

On our latest podcast, we spent some time talking about why Wendy's $WEN stock went up - instead of going down - last week after it turned down an acquisition offer by Trian Fund Management. The more interesting part was probably the insider purchases of two different biotech companies by Baker Bros. In one of those cases they were willing to buy after the stock went up more than 200% in less than two months. No wonder both $MDGL and $KOD are up more than 6% today.

Investor Letters

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QXO Inc Earnings Update: Q3 2026

QXO's Q3 sales rose 79% to $4.9 billion after TopBuild and Kodiak acquisitions, while acquisition debt lifted interest expense to $163…

QXO $13B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 2 clicks

Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.1B
Mispriced Assets 3 clicks

Top Rebound Stocks for Nov’26

Texas Pacific Land's 50% selloff reflects faded data-center expectations, while its Permian royalty business generated $498 million of 2025…

TPL $19B
Rebound Capital 2 clicks

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

PTON $2.5B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
MONOY · long

Monotaro CO LTD

MonotaRO, traded as MONOY in the U.S. and 3064 in Japan, is a Japanese MRO distributor recommended as a long.

MONOY $7.4B
Value Investors Club

Quick note on LSAK and GRPN

Lesaka expects its Bank Zero acquisition to close by end-January 2027, though it could still close this calendar year.

GRPN $513M
Mispriced Assets 5 clicks

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