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Friday, November 13, 2026

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@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

I wanted to think about it for a bit before responding and time go away from me this week. I think NBCU makes a lot of sense as an acquisition for Netflix $NFLX given its size and the optionality it provides the company. However beyond the tax part, getting this deal through antitrust will not be easy and integration will be even harder given all the moving parts to an organization of NBCU's size and Netflix's current culture as a tech company. $LION is much easier tuck-in acquisition on both those fronts.
@kevin__mak

Kevin Mak on X

$CMPS Some questions about the CNPV program being shelved and how it will affect Compass' application. The honest answer is "nobody knows", though FDA has said on the record that career staff are still reviewing applications that already hold a voucher (a bit vague!). My hope is that they continue the existing process. CMPS (and Usona) have been on a rolling submission, so there is an established workflow to "keep the ball moving". See the transcript below for a sense of the relationship they've built with the FDA over the past months. Also, my guess is that 30-70% (yes, wide range) of the review is already "done", so FDA isn't starting from scratch as of the Nov 9th submission date. Even if they reallocate resources and "slow things down", I could see a plausible slowdown case where it takes 3-4 months (instead of 1-2 months on a full CNPV program, but not the 8-12 months of the regular non-CNPV track). Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds holds a long position in CMPS. Views expressed are current opinions for information only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link in my bio for more important information. -- Related/unrelated, the "race" between Usona and Compass is actually kind of moot. The actual "approval effective date" will likely be the DEA rescheduling date. Once the FDA gives the nod to EITHER drug, that starts the process on DEA rescheduling (which people are guessing will take around 90 days).

Investor Letters

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IEH Corporation: Research Note

IEH Corporation posted Q2 revenue growth of 51% to $10.7 million and a record $56 million backlog, led by defense and medical demand.

IEHC $78M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 1 click

Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.1B
Mispriced Assets 4 clicks

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

PTON $2.5B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
BTU · long

Peabody Energy Corporation

Peabody Energy, ticker BTU, is a low-cost producer of thermal and metallurgical coal with mines in the United States and Australia.

BTU $2.1B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

AnaptysBio (ANAB)

AnaptysBio’s Jemperli royalty receipts rise after a Sagard financing obligation ends in 2027.

ANAB $1.5B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

What I've Been Reading

Yesway, Dollar General and Expedia feature in a research roundup spanning convenience retail, discount stores and AI-driven travel search.

YSWY $800M
Stock Thoughts

Dance with the Devil (Nasdaq: ILPT)

ILPT’s Hawaii ground leases and US warehouse portfolio are improving, while five-year fixed-rate refinancing eases the debt burden created…

ILPT $406M
Real Assets, Real Value

Everyone Bought the Shovels

Element Solutions sells consumable chipmaking chemistry, with a $75 target from $44 based on an AI-driven semiconductor-materials rerating.

ESI $8.3B
Mispriced Assets

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