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Friday, November 13, 2026

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Industry Primer: Alternative Asset Managers

Alternative asset managers earn durable fees on committed capital, but 2026 losses followed retail-credit redemptions, lender-fraud allegations and AI fears around portfolio software…

BN $94B
Latticework by MOI Global 2 clicks

From X

@junkbondinvest

junkbondinvestor on X

Initial reactions to $CRWV 3Q - Capex guide UP, with the low end raised to $37bn from $35bn. That implies $13-15bn in Q4 alone. Anyone here surprised? - $9bn of prepayments expected over the next 3 months. Cool, cheaper than the 15% unsecured debt. Some funding concerns alleviated, but that prepayment is not costless. - Margins improving. Adj EBITDA margin went to 62% from 59% in 2Q. Still ramping, though. - Backlog up $28bn to $132.5bn and contracted power up 900MW to 4.6GW. Contracted power up = more capex = more leases. - Debt up to $46.9bn, cash down to $4.1bn, and lease liabilities up to $18.7bn. Overall, not a whole lot changed about the story. Funding picture a bit better (prepayments, no equity, FCF not as bad) but commitments/capex keep growing. Let’s see how the call goes.
@junkbondinvest

junkbondinvestor on X

Initial reactions to $CRWV 3Q - Capex guide UP, with the low end raised to $37bn from $35bn. That implies $13-15bn in Q4 alone. Anyone here surprised? - $9bn of prepayments expected over the next 3 months. Cool, cheaper than the 15% unsecured debt. Some funding concerns alleviated, but that prepayment is not costless. - Margins improving. Adj EBITDA margin went to 62% from 59% in 2Q. Still ramping, though. - Backlog up $28bn to $132.5bn and contracted power up 900MW to 4.6GW. Contracted power up = more capex = more leases. - Debt up to $46.9bn, cash down to $4.1bn, and lease liabilities up to $18.7bn. Overall, nothing a whole lot changed about the story. Funding picture a bit better (prepayments, no equity, FCF not as bad) but commitments/capex keep growing. Let’s see how the call goes.
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

The acquisition I have been asked the most about in the last couple of months is Western Union's $WU acquisition of International Money Express $IMXI Instead of responding to emails privately, I figured I would share some thoughts here. The deal in question is the $16 per share all cash acquisition of $IMXI by $WU that was announced on August 10, 2025 at a premium of over 72%. The stock currently trades well below the pre-deal price. There was no pre-deal rumor with this one. The spread/discount on this deal was initially massive (41%) because New York was withholding regulatory approval. The deal had already cleared federal antitrust. Then California came along and decided to review the transaction for a second time. This is the big holdup at this point and reminds me of the deal for Genworth Financial $GNW, which finally fell apart four years after it was announced. With $IMXI there were concerns that Western Union might not file for federal clearance (HSR) a second time after the first one expired a full year later. But Western Union in early October decided to file again and the spread recovered for a bit. The concern in the last few days and the double digit decline in $IMXI today is related to the outside date for the deal expiring today. The outside date (unless extended) is the absolutely drop dead date by which the companies have to complete the deal or they can walk. If Western Union decides today to extend the outside date, the stock will most likely rebound sharply even if California approval is still pending. Overall I don't participate in these kinds of situations but if were possible to hedge additional downside through put options that don't have massive premiums (they often do), this could turn out into a trade with low downside and high upside. My subjective probability that Western Union extends the date is 65%. The price action today in both $IMXI and $WU points to the extension not coming through. Obviously not investment advice and I have no position. I am wrong often.

Investor Letters

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Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

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Top Rebound Stocks for Nov’26

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Peloton: Beyond The Bike

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TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
MONOY · long

Monotaro CO LTD

MonotaRO, traded as MONOY in the U.S. and 3064 in Japan, is a Japanese MRO distributor recommended as a long.

MONOY $7.4B
Value Investors Club

DoorDash’s FBA Moment

DoorDash’s $17 billion Instacart deal targets DashMart warehouse scale, where 99%+ order accuracy and faster delivery address the limits of…

DASH $78BKR $41B
MBI Deep Dives 3 clicks

Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

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Doomberg 5 clicks

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