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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 3 clicks

From X

@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$ZIM @ZeeContrarian1 @Chuckyb22074706 @ROICRHODES @christankerfund @MarkGroskyEsq. How are we thinking about $HLAG circa ~600m incentive to close this thing before March record date (giving us Q4 26’ div and top up). Thoughts and why would be appreciated. @Chuckyb22074706 is the only one to really touch on this and has a good point about better directors potentially moving up the record date. @ZeeContrarian1 first love your content and evident clarity of thought, thank you! I feel like your thesis is bulletproof except for this risk? How do you think about it especially since if I’m not mistaken you haven’t really touched upon it.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN granted 6.23M RSUs in Q3, 7.4% of its 84.2M shares outstanding, and will expense $103.4M for them over a weighted-average 3 years, a cost its adjusted EBITDA excludes. The 6.23M includes the 4.59M granted to the CFO, CTO, and COO on September 29, and the 10-Q doesn't name who got the other 1.64M. Q3's stock comp was only $0.25M, since most of the RSUs came on September 29. $BRUN's adjusted EBITDA adds stock comp back, so from Q4 it will exclude ~$8.6M/quarter of RSU expense on average, equal to 47.9% of Q3's $18.0M of adjusted EBITDA. And $BRUN's 2026 equity plan still has 2,986,298 shares left to grant, another 3.5% of the shares outstanding. The bear, base, and bull cases in my October 19 update counted 88.8M fully diluted shares, including only the executives' 4.59M RSUs. The full 6.23M takes the count to 90.4M, which trims each case's per-share value by 1.8%.
@convequity

Convequity on X

It is a puzzle to me that Jensen has been ousted this quickly. 1. Currently Megaspeed seems to be tied to $BABA, not to the Chinese government. 2. The Chinese government's policy is to incubate domestic AI chips, including banning H200 imports. The government is not pushing $NVDA into China. 3. Or is China leveraging US politics to attack Nvidia, so that Jensen's resignation gives Huawei more time and weakens the US AI chip industry? If it turns out Jensen was simply ousted because of two affairs and there was no material national security damage, then US politicians are doing more harm than good by attacking Jensen Huang. It still makes sense to investigate further the nature of Jensen's dealings with China-affiliated entities.

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Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.2B
Mispriced Assets 3 clicks

Top Rebound Stocks for Nov’26

Texas Pacific Land's 50% selloff reflects faded data-center expectations, while its Permian royalty business generated $498 million of 2025…

TPL $19B
Rebound Capital 2 clicks

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
COCO · short

Vita Coco Company INC

Vita Coco, COCO, is pitched short after a 45% monthly rally, arguing investors are overextrapolating coconut water category growth.

COCO $3.7B
Value Investors Club 1 click

SAP: DCF Valuation

SAP’s DCF valuation sets a $260 base-case target versus a $155.09 ADR price, based on cloud migration, AI efficiencies and expanding EBIT…

SAP $270B
Hated Moats

Duffy’s Last Dance

CME CEO Terry Duffy moves to executive chairman while suing the CFTC over Kalshi’s approval to list perpetual futures, defending CME’s…

CME $113B
Net Interest

New Buy : Zoetis 🐕

Zoetis trades near 10x EV/EBIT after its selloff, with animal-health leadership, a $9.5 billion revenue base and companion-animal demand…

ZTS $34B
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