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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as management pursues a turnaround.

PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks

From X

@orrdavid

David Orr on X

Another thing: This post is *not* meant to call a short term top. I sometimes want to. Maybe even I have hinted that's what I think. But that's wrong. The best way to think is, "I don't know when the top will be, maybe $SOXX really does take another 100% leg up first, who knows, why not." But that next big move up or down seems like a pure guess to me. So at least for making a binary bet - a bet on $SOXX beta - it's a pure casino. There probably is some brilliant way to structure this trade, though. You're long compute and you're short the things that more intelligence kills - like really kills, not that benefits from AI letting them cut 90% of their staff. For my part, there are just way too many eyes on the trade for me to be all that interested, though. Because if too many smart people figure out how to solve that fundamentally guess what ... the long/short could easily blow up in a month, just before the collapse, since the market won't often give such large crowds a free lunch pair trade. I say screw all of that, better to just focus on real investments, in the real world, that likely benefit from AI or at least don't get hurt. That is not a gamble today, and lots of those stocks are just straight up cheap. The only downside is that the AI trade will probably keep the stocks trading weak ... but this side is NOT hard to do broad, uncrowded pair trades on, so who cares.
@orrdavid

David Orr on X

Look at this last chart carefully. April implied that the next few months would get more expensive, and they did. July implied that the next couple of months would get more expensive, and it was wrong. And AI traded sideways. September again implied that October would go up, and October indeed went up a lot! And $SOXX tried to rally hard,m and then failed hard, even though October's curve suggests prices are still going up over the next month or two? It's hard to say exactly. What I am confident amount: Once the more modern compute starts going down rather than up, the AI trade will have already imploded many months beforehand.

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $3.8B
Doomberg 5 clicks
OSW · short

One Spa World

OneSpaWorld (OSW) faces about 37% downside as its valuation requires unattainable growth in average revenue per customer after major-market…

OSW $3.1B
Value Investors Club

The AutoNation Story

AutoNation shed rentals and megastores, focused on dealerships, and retired 91.1% of its shares through buybacks after its 1990s roll-up…

AN $6B
Cannibal Stocks 4 clicks

The 10-Q Fills In the Buyback

Empire State Realty Trust bought $86.1 million of stock through November 6, while corrected sum-of-the-parts values range from $9.12 to…

ESRT $1.5B
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

No title

SpaceX’s $24 billion Starbase power plant, Microsoft’s Oracle capacity cuts, Riot’s $72 billion AI lease and Quanta’s sell-off frame…

RIOT $6.8B
Monte Independent Investment Research 3 clicks

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