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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $778M
The Value Road 4 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I calculated how much of the Storm copper project’s build American West Metals $AWMLF has to fund beyond a US$40M loan from Storm’s future copper buyer, after its new pre-feasibility study (PFS). Ocean Partners, the metals trader that holds Storm’s offtake (the right to buy all of its output), agreed in April 2025 to lend up to US$40M of the initial capex defined by the PEA (Storm’s first-pass study) through a senior secured loan, subject to a bankable feasibility study and a final investment decision (FID). The loan covered 84.4% of the PEA’s US$47.4M, and covers 49.4% of the PFS’s US$81.0M. Counting pre-development, the part of Storm’s US$108.3M pre-production cost that the loan doesn’t cover tripled to US$68.3M from US$22.1M. $AWMLF’s 80% of the US$68.3M gap is ~US$55M, more than twice its ~US$24.6M market cap. The PFS lists offtake prepayments, project debt, build-own-operate deals, and Canadian critical minerals programs as non-dilutive options. Its cash flow model also counts a ~US$24M refund from Canada’s 30% clean technology manufacturing tax credit, but the refund only arrives in the second year of production, after construction. Aston Bay Holdings (TSXV: BAY), which owns the other 20% of Storm, only starts funding its share after the DFS (the next, more detailed study) and the FID, so $AWMLF pays for everything until then. After the FID, Aston Bay’s 20% of the gap is ~US$14M, more than its own ~US$11M market cap. If Aston Bay doesn’t pay, its stake gets diluted, and below 10% it turns into a 2% royalty. So $AWMLF may end up funding more than 80% of the build, and its stake in Storm would grow as well.

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Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.2B
Mispriced Assets 3 clicks

Top Rebound Stocks for Nov’26

Texas Pacific Land's 50% selloff reflects faded data-center expectations, while its Permian royalty business generated $498 million of 2025…

TPL $19B
Rebound Capital 2 clicks

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
LGCY · long

Legacy Education

Legacy Education operates six California campuses offering post-secondary nursing, physician assistant and surgical education.

LGCY $110M
Value Investors Club

SCIA- SCI Engineered Materials

SCIA generates $28 million of revenue from thin-film materials, with 78% of sales tied to one customer, while expanding into defense…

SCIA $40M
Sylence Capital

ALTO- ALTO ingredients

ALTO Ingredients trades near half of book value after plant upgrades and lower corn prices set up a recovery in crush margins and cash flow.

ALTO $298M
Sylence Capital 1 click

Notes and Updates

ECIP recipient banks could repurchase Treasury preferred shares at steep discounts, potentially lifting book value, while Hawaiian Electric…

HE $1.5BUBAB $191M
Exploring with Alluvial Capital

Mereo Biopharma

Mereo Biopharma has two late-stage assets, seeks non-dilutive financing for alvelestat Phase 3 trials, and reports cash runway through 2027.

MREO $49M
Raging Bull Investments

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