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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 3 clicks

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@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

Reflections on $NVDA's corporate governance after Jensen Huang's exit 1) It is strange that the CIA and the government ran the rumored China spy investigation without notifying Nvidia's board and Jensen first. The matter had been brewing for several quarters, and the news only broke after the mid-term election. 2) Jensen should have asked for a bigger stake in Nvidia, just as Elon Musk did at $TSLA. Elon set an outlandish long-term stock price target with a vesting schedule tied to it, and that gave him more control and more ownership. 3) Dual-class share structures, where the founder's shares carry extra votes, are rare among established semiconductor firms. This lack of founder voting control is a common issue across semiconductor companies. Jensen seems to have been too focused on technology and too little on politics and control. 4) Where Jensen goes next is the open question. We hope Nvidia gets him back in some way, or Elon hires him, or he finds another place to thrive. Age 63 is just the start for him. We hope he perseveres through this storm and thrives. The worst case is that he retires into a VC-like role, but we don't think he will settle for that at this stage. 5) In the best world, NVDA shareholders would vote to bring Jensen back and fire what we see as a woke board. We think that is unlikely. Share ownership is widely distributed and the investor base is very diversified. Many of those investors do not follow the company or its governance closely, so they are hard to mobilize. And the board was not constructed as thoughtfully as the one Elon built, after he suffered the same problem early in his PayPal years. 6) Those who said founder control, vision and ownership don't matter to the Nvidia business will feel they are right, and buying the dip will look great in the short term. We think they will be proven wrong over the longer term. 7) This is a great time for $AVGO, $AMD and $CBRS. But note that Broadcom and AMD have similar governance issues too.

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Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.2B
Mispriced Assets 3 clicks

Top Rebound Stocks for Nov’26

Texas Pacific Land's 50% selloff reflects faded data-center expectations, while its Permian royalty business generated $498 million of 2025…

TPL $19B
Rebound Capital 2 clicks

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
NINE · long

Nine Energy Service

Nine Energy Service (NINE) is a domestic onshore oilfield-services consolidation play as U.S. rig counts show early signs of recovery.

NINE $104M
Value Investors Club 1 click

Matan on Stitch Fix

Stitch Fix’s rushed Freestyle pivot cannibalized its profitable Fix business, driving active clients below 3.4 million, quarterly revenue…

SFIX $360M
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks

MercadoLibre: Valuation Model

MercadoLibre’s sum-of-the-parts model values commerce and payments on FCFF, credit on equity returns, producing a $1,980 base-case target…

MELI $77B
Hated Moats

U-Haul Bought at the Top

U-Haul’s pandemic-era fleet purchases at inflated prices now drive higher depreciation and disposal losses as truck and van prices…

UHAL $11B
scuttleblurb 2 clicks

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