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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

The acquisition I have been asked the most about in the last couple of months is Western Union's $WU acquisition of International Money Express $IMXI Instead of responding to emails privately, I figured I would share some thoughts here. The deal in question is the $16 per share all cash acquisition of $IMXI by $WU that was announced on August 10, 2025 at a premium of over 72%. The stock currently trades well below the pre-deal price. There was no pre-deal rumor with this one. The spread/discount on this deal was initially massive (41%) because New York was withholding regulatory approval. The deal had already cleared federal antitrust. Then California came along and decided to review the transaction for a second time. This is the big holdup at this point and reminds me of the deal for Genworth Financial $GNW, which finally fell apart four years after it was announced. With $IMXI there were concerns that Western Union might not file for federal clearance (HSR) a second time after the first one expired a full year later. But Western Union in early October decided to file again and the spread recovered for a bit. The concern in the last few days and the double digit decline in $IMXI today is related to the outside date for the deal expiring today. The outside date (unless extended) is the absolutely drop dead date by which the companies have to complete the deal or they can walk. If Western Union decides today to extend the outside date, the stock will most likely rebound sharply even if California approval is still pending. Overall I don't participate in these kinds of situations but if were possible to hedge additional downside through put options that don't have massive premiums (they often do), this could turn out into a trade with low downside and high upside. My subjective probability that Western Union extends the date is 65%. The price action today in both $IMXI and $WU points to the extension not coming through. Obviously not investment advice and I have no position. I am wrong often.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

On August 13, 2026, I wrote up a company that owns 80% of the Storm copper project in Nunavut (Arctic Canada) and all of the West Desert zinc-indium deposit in Utah. Storm alone was worth about what the market paid for the whole company, leaving West Desert’s indium priced near zero. I also flagged that Storm’s pre-feasibility study (PFS), the more detailed study that follows a first-pass preliminary economic assessment (PEA), could disappoint the usual way, with “higher capex or lower recoveries than the PEA assumed.” The PFS came out on November 5, 2026, with higher capex but better recoveries, plus Storm’s first ore reserve. Then on November 9, the company added a maiden exploration target of up to 2.2Mt of contained copper, 7.9x Storm’s current resource. That company is American West Metals $AWMLF, which closed at AUD$0.029 (~US$0.020) on the ASX that day, 9.4% below where I wrote it up and 35.6% below the AUD$0.045 it raised at in its last two placements (stock sales to selected investors). The PFS improved on the PEA: → All 11 years of the mine plan come from the reserve, with inferred tonnes (the lowest-confidence resource category) treated as waste. → The plant recovers 68% of the copper in the ore, or 103,000t over the mine life, up from ~61% in the PEA plan. But the PFS also made Storm more expensive: → Storm needs US$108.3M before first copper, up 74.4% from US$62.1M. → Over the copper the plant recovers, operating costs come to ~US$3.17/lb vs. ~US$2.66/lb in the PEA, or 19.4% more per pound. Meanwhile, $AWMLF had just ~1.6 quarters of cash left as of September 30. So how does a ~US$25M company fund its ~US$55M share of the build? That’s what I answer in my new ~3,400-word update on $AWMLF, including my updated valuation and whether I’d hold through the next placement.

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