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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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DoorDash’s FBA Moment

DoorDash’s $17 billion Instacart deal targets DashMart warehouse scale, where 99%+ order accuracy and faster delivery address the limits of store-based grocery fulfillment.

DASH $79BKR $41B
MBI Deep Dives 1 click

From X

@KEDM_COM

KEDM.com on X

In June, Alphabet $GOOGL surprised the market by announcing the mother of all equity raises. The plan was to raise $80 billion, consisting of $15b in convertible preferred stock and $25b in common stock, followed by a $40b ATM set to start in Q3. The official reason was to fund AI Capex and pay taxes on employee stock compensation. The timing seemed obvious … they wanted to get ahead of a liquidity crunch as SpaceX $SPCX, OpenAI, and Anthropic lined up their IPOs. SpaceX went public in June, and Anthropic’s November IPO could raise up to $64.4b, with shares expected to start trading on Nasdaq as $ANT on November 19. We recently wrote about how the typical IPO underperforms by ~20% on a 3-year horizon. This effect was more pronounced when companies were unprofitable, resulting in an average underperformance of 30%. Companies like $SPCX are not set up for patient buy-and-hold investors. Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. Passive investors will be forced to buy shares just after the initial IPO pump, and just before the accelerated unlock. There’s a 200-year history of finance bros dumping on retail. SpaceX simply figured out how to do it at scale.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The FTC and eight states sued Toast $TOST, the restaurant software and payments company, on October 29, the day after its President and CFO Elena Gomez gave notice. The complaint alleges $TOST: → Enrolled restaurants in subscription add-ons they didn’t agree to. → Charged an undisclosed early termination fee of $150 for each month left on a contract. → Added a $0.99 fee to some online orders over $10 from September 2021 to July 2023, money that went to Toast rather than the restaurants. → Required 30 days’ written notice to cancel without clearly disclosing it, and treated a cancellation as a default on any Toast Capital loan, making the full balance due at once. → Advertised “24/7/365” support that customers say they couldn’t reach. The 10-Q says $TOST will “vigorously defend its interests” and can’t yet estimate a possible loss. CEO Aman Narang argued on the Q3 call that ROSCA (the Restore Online Shoppers’ Confidence Act, a federal law on online subscriptions) was never meant for negotiated business contracts: “If ROSCA were to apply to B2B custom-negotiated contracts in a B2B context, it would have huge implications for really the whole industry and business contracts in general.” He also said $TOST had been cooperating with the FTC “over the past year” before it sued, and that “how we settle the suit” won’t change Toast’s long-term path. With $1.89B of cash and marketable securities and no debt, $TOST can afford a fine, so the bigger risk to me is an injunction that could possibly change how it sells, prices, and cancels contracts.

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 4 clicks
ABSSF · long

Airboss Of America CORP

AirBoss is a large North American rubber producer moving away from its existing business mix.

ABSSF $124M
Value Investors Club 1 click

The Week Ahead

Micron’s November revenue guide will test whether an 86% gross margin reflects a structural memory shortage or a cyclical peak, while…

MU $743BNVDA $4.6T
CV's Substack

Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific…

TDG $66BTPL $19B
Rebound Capital 8 clicks

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