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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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DoorDash’s FBA Moment

DoorDash’s $17 billion Instacart deal targets DashMart warehouse scale, where 99%+ order accuracy and faster delivery address the limits of store-based grocery fulfillment.

DASH $79BKR $41B
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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The FTC and eight states sued Toast $TOST, the restaurant software and payments company, on October 29, the day after its President and CFO Elena Gomez gave notice. The complaint alleges $TOST: → Enrolled restaurants in subscription add-ons they didn’t agree to. → Charged an undisclosed early termination fee of $150 for each month left on a contract. → Added a $0.99 fee to some online orders over $10 from September 2021 to July 2023, money that went to Toast rather than the restaurants. → Required 30 days’ written notice to cancel without clearly disclosing it, and treated a cancellation as a default on any Toast Capital loan, making the full balance due at once. → Advertised “24/7/365” support that customers say they couldn’t reach. The 10-Q says $TOST will “vigorously defend its interests” and can’t yet estimate a possible loss. CEO Aman Narang argued on the Q3 call that ROSCA (the Restore Online Shoppers’ Confidence Act, a federal law on online subscriptions) was never meant for negotiated business contracts: “If ROSCA were to apply to B2B custom-negotiated contracts in a B2B context, it would have huge implications for really the whole industry and business contracts in general.” He also said $TOST had been cooperating with the FTC “over the past year” before it sued, and that “how we settle the suit” won’t change Toast’s long-term path. With $1.89B of cash and marketable securities and no debt, $TOST can afford a fine, so the bigger risk to me is an injunction that could possibly change how it sells, prices, and cancels contracts.
@convequity

Convequity on X

If $SPCX makes its own chips at Terafab, our model has a gigawatt of orbital compute costing about $10 billion to build, down from about $33 billion with purchased GPUs. In orbit, the silicon decides the returns more than Starship does. This comes from our SPCX Special View valuation model. It estimates how fast capacity comes online, limited by equipment supply and launches. The first gigawatt reaches orbit in 2027. Our Base case buys GPUs. Chips and racks are about 80% of the cost, launch about 11%. Each gigawatt earns $40 billion a year renting out compute through 2028, falling to $20 billion from 2031 as GPU-hour prices fall. Terafab is Musk's planned chip factory. In our Full Terafab case, chips and racks cost one-eighth as much, about a third of the total, and launch becomes the largest item at 37%. A customer like Anthropic would want its own chips rather than rent SPCX's. Terafab chips would most likely run SPCX's own AI models, sold through an API. We assume that earns 50% more. Over a seven-year satellite life, a gigawatt's net present value is about $88 billion with purchased GPUs, $111 billion renting out Terafab compute, and $172 billion running SPCX's own models. The fleet reaches 140 gigawatts in 2036. Multiplying 140 by $172 billion values SPCX at about $24 trillion. This counts the cost of building and launching the hardware, but not of developing SPCX's own models.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

In August, I noted that the design in the PEA (the first-pass study) for American West Metals’ $AWMLF Storm copper project meant no tailings dam and no process chemicals. In the PFS (the more detailed study that replaced it), initial capex came in at US$81.0M, 70.9% above the PEA’s US$47.4M, and pre-development capex rose to US$27.3M from US$14.7M. So Storm needs US$108.3M before first copper, up 74.4% from US$62.1M, plus US$10.2M of expansion capex later (US$118.5M over the mine life). Processing drove most of the increase, at US$38.0M of initial capex against US$9.4M in the PEA. Test work showed that crushing broke the ore along grain boundaries and pushed more copper into the fines that bypass the ore sorters (machines that pick copper-bearing rock out of the waste). So the plant now adds a small flotation circuit (which uses chemical reagents to float copper minerals off finely ground ore) and a US$4.2M tailings facility, both of which the PEA’s design of ore sorters and gravity separators avoided. The PFS adds flotation reagents and filtered tailings, which get stacked dry. Storm’s footprint is still small next to a conventional flotation mill’s, but regulators now have reagents and tailings to review. With the flotation circuit, the plant recovers 68% of the copper in the ore, or 103,000t over the mine life, up from ~61% (~83,000t from 10.3Mt @ 1.32% copper) in the PEA plan. But the product grades 15% copper, down from the PEA’s 17.1%, so Storm has to bag and ship 41.3% more of it (688,000t vs. 487,000t) during the 5-6 weeks each summer when ships can reach the site. Over the copper the plant recovers, operating costs come to ~US$3.17/lb vs. ~US$2.66/lb in the PEA (total operating costs over recovered pounds, before silver credits), or 19.4% more per pound. So the PFS mine recovers 23.8% more copper than the PEA’s, but each pound costs 19.4% more to produce, and the processing plant costs four times as much to build, since the fines now need their own flotation circuit and tailings facility.

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

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