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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

I listened to a Bill Gurley @bgurley interview on @TKPPodcast, great interview by the way Bill. He compared the US AI labs to farmers who go to the market and just trade goods, whereas in China the farmers go to the market, trade goods, and are forced to share best practices and help each other implement them. In his words: “The competitive dynamic in China is more intense. Because it is more intense, everyone has chosen to go open source. That creates a system that is capable of innovating far faster than the competitive system we have here.” China’s way results in exponential learning and growth, which is pretty clear. Charlie Munger was a notorious China bull late in life: “The reason that I invested in China is I get so much better companies at so much lower prices.” Sentiment has also got to account for something. China’s CSI 300 just confirmed a bear market, down 20.2% from its June peak, and 19 years later it has still never closed above its 2007 high. On October 23 the Hang Seng Tech index fell 5% to a two-year low and the CSI AI index fell 3.3% in a single day. I am expressing this macro view through a bottoms-up investment I found: a shareholder-friendly, founder-led company paying an 11%+ dividend and authorized to buy back about 3% of its market cap. Revenue grew 33% in the first half of 2026, net income grew 34%, and paying users went from 3.8 million in 2021 to 18.2 million in 2025, a 48% CAGR. It has been preparing for AI since the beginning. The founder: “From the very first day of the company’s founding, we had our own AI algorithm engineers and big data team… we began applying these cutting-edge technologies as early as 2019.” Today about 70% of staff are R&D, AI-generated code is approaching half of all R&D code, and net margins run near 30%. All for the grand price of about 2.5x earnings, with a ~$494M market cap sitting below roughly $630M of unencumbered cash. Did I mention there are forced sellers selling for completely non-economic reasons because they are VC investors? VCs including Hike, Northern Light, Qiming, SIG and Sequoia China owned about 55% of the company after the IPO. Qiming alone has sold 43% of its stake in nine months, from 19.4M shares to 11.1M, per its 13G filings. Here is my writeup on Yuanbao $YB:
@valuedontlie

Colin King on X

Ugly chart at $APTV Maybe one of my favorite setups right now despite "tough industry" dynamics... Lapping one-time VGNT spin costs so FCF should jump to $1B+ next year (on $8B market cap = 12.5% FCF yield) and committed to buyback stock with 100% of FCF through 2027 Assuming no operational/industry improvement, it's not hard to get $7-8 EPS by 2028 (vs. $5.70 in '26) As a bonus, this management team has done 2 spins in 10 years and wouldn't be surprised if they spin the (better) engineered components business

Investor Letters

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Airbnb 3Q26: Business Update

Airbnb’s 3Q26 revenue rose 19% to $4.9 billion as nights and seats grew 16%, with app bookings up 29% and Reserve Now Pay Later adding…

ABNB $111B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

Research update

S&P Global research will assess Platts, Kensho and ratings growth; Benefit Systems’ 72% YTD rally changed its valuation, while Netflix and…

SPGI $136BICE $96B
Global Outperformers 3 clicks
OSW · short

One Spa World

OneSpaWorld (OSW) faces about 37% downside as its valuation requires unattainable growth in average revenue per customer after major-market…

OSW $3.1B
Value Investors Club

💥Tead-ering💥

Teads’ revenue fell 26% and its stock dropped 38% as Google AI summaries cut publisher referral traffic, worsening losses and straining its…

TEAD $17MGUTS $11M
PETITION 2 clicks

The AutoNation Story

AutoNation shed rentals and megastores, focused on dealerships, and retired 91.1% of its shares through buybacks after its 1990s roll-up…

AN $5.9B
Cannibal Stocks 2 clicks

The 10-Q Fills In the Buyback

Empire State Realty Trust bought $86.1 million of stock through November 6, while corrected sum-of-the-parts values range from $9.12 to…

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

No title

SpaceX’s $24 billion Starbase power plant, Microsoft’s Oracle capacity cuts, Riot’s $72 billion AI lease and Quanta’s sell-off frame…

PWR $77BRIOT $6.6B
Monte Independent Investment Research 3 clicks

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