New Ask Claude or ChatGPT about any stock, using Bullpen. Bullpen in Claude or ChatGPT. 7 days free
Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Wednesday, November 11, 2026

Back to the front page

From X

@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Yes, I still like and will defend $AAOI despite the "shitco" claims from the level 1 NPCs on X: - AOI recently signed a $1B to $1.5B 3Y contract with a hyperscalers - Majority of people missed this part, but there's another $5-$7B contract expected to be signed in weeks. This is very large scale relative to current valuations, and gives AOI more visibility for the future. However, the risk I see here is that hyperscalers prefer CPO/NPO laser procurement over pluggables. So that's probably part of the reason they're not doing pre-payments or take/pay like they would for $LITE or $MU capacity expansion. - There's only single digits amount of companies in the world that probably have 300mW-400mW CPO laser capabilities (one of which is the "shitco") This was also a large reason why $COHR got $20B agreements, $LITE $5B agreements + $NVDA investments (UHP lasers). I'd argue they should focus on merchant high end lasers than using their own capacity toward 800g pluggables. And just source lasers from merchant market That would change their valuation premiums overnight IMO, given they have a lot of optionality from end-to-end supply chain manufacturing. _ In terms of valuations, they deserved to be compressed from their infinite $600M ATMs that they used earlier (that they now stopped abusing). And since timelines slipped a few months from DSP bottlenecks and equipment procurement/installation. Then you have macro overhang too + overall AI selloff. As for the operational side of things, it's not eternity and relatively out of their hands... but I wouldn't conflate it as failing qualifications or facing order cancellations. Building up US supply chains like $INTC is always going to be more difficult than easy-mode Asia manufacturing in Malaysia as well. I'd argue this same execution risk they're being punished for over in Texas (like Intel foundry), will turn into a premium once US capacity scales into revenue
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Not always right on timing, but I'm pretty confident long term they'll play out. Just look at $AXTI, everyone thought it was a dead company last year and InP substrates were a commodity. -> Q4 2025 gross margins: 20.9% -> Q1 2026: 29.6% -> Q2 2026: 44.9% -> Q3 2026: 56.0% -> Q4 2026: 60%+ est. With legacy memory like $ESMT, I did guess earnings correctly, they made a whopping $331M+ net income relative to $1.9B MC But stock still dropped somehow... but eventually as time passes out I'm personally confident majority will play out directionally right.

Investor Letters

All letters

Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 4 clicks
BKV · long

Bkv CORP

BKV Corp, public for less than two years, is an underfollowed natural-gas producer pursuing early-stage projects and a transition.

BKV $2B
Value Investors Club 1 click

ALTO- ALTO ingredients

ALTO Ingredients trades near half of book value after plant upgrades and lower corn prices set up a recovery in crush margins and cash flow.

ALTO $285M
Sylence Capital 1 click

Notes and Updates

ECIP recipient banks could repurchase Treasury preferred shares at steep discounts, potentially lifting book value, while Hawaiian Electric…

HE $1.6BUBAB $190M
Exploring with Alluvial Capital

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

130 publications

Newsletters 110

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 83 of 283

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

369 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.