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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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Expert Call | Lumentum & Marvell Deal

Marvell’s all-stock acquisition of Lumentum targets optical supply, DSP synergies and AI data-center demand, while adding fab integration, customer-retention and regulatory risks.

LITE $48B
P Equity Research 2 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

At the US$5.30/lb copper base case in American West Metals’ $AWMLF new pre-feasibility study (PFS) for its Storm copper project, the post-tax NPV (discounted at 7%) is US$119M, with a 32.8% IRR and a 3.6-year payback. The PEA (Storm’s first-pass study) showed US$149M at an 8% discount rate and a 46% IRR, on US$4.60/lb copper. So the PFS uses a higher copper price and a lower discount rate, and still values Storm lower. The PFS’s own sensitivity table shows ~US$110M at the PEA’s 8% rate, and post-tax FCF over the mine life fell to US$179M from US$191M, even though revenue rose to US$1.25B from US$839M. Extending the sensitivity table, each 10% drop in copper takes ~US$52M off the NPV. So at the PEA’s US$4.60/lb, 13.2% below the PFS’s price, Storm would be worth ~US$51M at 7% (US$118.9M − 1.32 × US$51.6M), about a third of the PEA’s US$149M. In other words, the higher copper price, not the mine plan, holds up the PFS’s NPV. The PFS also runs a spot case at US$6.53/lb copper (as of November 2), where the NPV rises to US$233M, with a 55.1% IRR and a 2.7-year payback. A 10% move in copper shifts the NPV by US$50-52M, and a 10% change in recovery by US$46-48M, against ~US$4M for a 10% change in capex. So the capex increase matters less to the value than to the funding. At ~US$52M per 10% move in copper, the NPV would reach zero near US$4.10/lb, ~36% below the November 9 price. At US$4.75/lb, the average London Metal Exchange (LME) price since January 2024 (per the PFS), the NPV would be ~US$65M. Copper is also near the top of its range, as the PFS’s US$6.53/lb spot price is just 3.1% below the US$6.74/lb LME high since January 2024. So I value Storm on the PFS’s US$5.30/lb base case rather than spot, since first copper is still at least three years away.

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 4 clicks
OSW · short

Onespaworld Holdings LTD

OneSpaWorld Holdings, the dominant outsourced cruise-ship spa operator across more than 200 vessels, is the subject of a short thesis.

OSW $3.1B
Value Investors Club

Short CNM

Core & Main faces a short thesis centered on the risks in its roll-up strategy.

CNM $9.2B
Shallow Dives 1 click

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