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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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The AutoNation Story

AutoNation shed rentals and megastores, focused on dealerships, and retired 91.1% of its shares through buybacks after its 1990s roll-up collapse.

AN $6.1B
Cannibal Stocks 1 click

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Elmet $ELMT, which turns tungsten into parts for U.S. missiles and jets, has raised $325.4M in 2026, including its April IPO and $200M from the U.S. Department of War (DoW), and ~$81M of cash was left after it paid for stakes in two tungsten miners in October. $124.7M bought 4.99% of Masan High-Tech Materials (UPCoM: MSR), $ELMT's longtime Vietnamese supplier, and $24.7M bought 3.5M shares, plus warrants, of Blue Moon Metals $BMM, owner of the Springer tungsten mine in Nevada. Operations used another $60.7M through October 2 ($53.1M in Q3 alone), mostly to build inventory, which more than doubled to $152.8M from $69.7M as of December 31. Counting the $124.7M set aside for Masan as cash, net cash went from the $60.5M I calculated after the DoW deal in my September 17 update to ~$0 as of October 2. At $21.99, $ELMT is 4.4% below the $23 I used in September, but its EV rose to ~$811M from $784M, mostly because of the Q3 inventory build. The DoW's remaining $250M can't arrive before March 2027, comes in at most $50M per six-month window, and each draw has to name its use and meet the DoW's conditions. $ELMT's plan for the DoW money still has more than $290M to fund: (1) $165M+ to upgrade and expand its three U.S. plants, (2) $75M for its 70% of the joint venture restarting Springer's processing plant, and (3) a $50M advance to Blue Moon against future Springer tungsten. So until the first DoW draw lands, any spending on Springer, the plant upgrades, or more inventory comes from the ~$81M of cash, $18.1M of unused credit lines, and whatever cash the business generates.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

New commentary today from SoftBank on Elon Musks post 4 days ago: “SoftBank is defaulting on their turbine orders” Analyst Question: “Any comment on that?” SoftBank CFO Yoshimitsu Goto: “this is simply not correct at all. There is no such default” This also mirrors what $GE CEO Scott Strazik stated about seeing no procurement cancellations or counterparty financing difficulties. Pretty damaging allegations about the company financing $SPCX competitor (OpenAI + Stargate). I wonder if there’s any more nuance these claims or if it’s false.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

If you look at CW laser ASPs for AI data centers, the pricing differences are pretty substantial: 70mW: ~$3–4 100mW: ~$4–6 (Source Photonics channel checks). With some premiums apparently going up to $7-$9 range with the recent shortage for pluggables. 120–150mW NPO: ~$15–20 350mW UHP CW: ~$40 (Nomura) 400mW UHP CW for NPO/CPO: ~$50–75 (Mizuho) With former communication laser chips going from 20-50 cents. The pricing and gross margins of these players go up with each architectural shift (60%+ for CPO lasers). And go up even more depending how far down the stack you go (selling ELSFP was ~2.5x revenue content) In terms of how I see the landscape now: - $COHR is probably the best risk adjusted laser player now, for people who don't like uncertainty. Their new $20B LTA is very substantial. - $LITE pretty negative now given the valuation overhang from $MRVL acquisition. Operationally very opsitive. - $AAOI has extreme demand visibility (likely $6-$9B in new LTAs from just 1 quarter), but credible execution uncertainty. They've also been focusing on pluggables + bottlenecked by DSPs, rather focusing on UHP CPO laser merchant markets. But I think if markets see a new $5B-$7B LTA that they're in late stage discussion for... and see the $4.4B MC. Pretty sure that's a catalyst for recovery. The demand doesn't disappear but timeline shifts back a few months. AOI also signaled DSP as the main bottleneck, last quarter it was TIAs, so other different component players that are interesting. - $SIVE has extreme capacity expansion (300m laser capacity targeted in total). The economic implications that they won't disclose are likely enormous relative to their MC, even if they sell $3 70mW lasers to China pluggable players. But there's a qualification uncertainty to fill the gap, that markets have punished the company for. Especially when management communication amplifies uncertainty, despite the ongoing shortage. Right now entire AI trade is going up and down together though.

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Insider activity October 2026

Asian insider buying reached $2.9 billion in October, the highest since 2018, with South Korea and Thailand leading.

BKRKY $23B
Asian Century Stocks 1 click

Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office…

XRN $372M
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

You Understand Now, Why You Came This Way

Brazil’s October 25 runoff puts Bolsonaro’s likely victory at the center of a bullish regional-stock case; Golar LNG (GLNG) also reports…

GLNG $4.5B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

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