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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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Airbnb 3Q26: Business Update

Airbnb’s 3Q26 revenue rose 19% to $4.9 billion as nights and seats grew 16%, with app bookings up 29% and Reserve Now Pay Later adding three points.

ABNB $111B
Speedwell Memos

From X

@convequity 6 clicks

Convequity on X

We sold TSMC ($TSM) earlier this year and are staying out, despite strong demand for its leading-edge chips. Our view is that investors may be too confident that leadership in shrinking transistors will keep earning the same share of industry profits as more performance gains come from stacking circuits, connecting chips and integrating optics. Logic folding could also make older manufacturing processes more competitive, which would weaken the pricing power that TSMC's leading-edge investments depend on. In 2009 TSMC's leadership initially rejected advanced packaging as low-margin work before being persuaded otherwise. Together with today's cautious approach to expanding capacity, we read that as a deeply risk-averse culture. That discipline protects returns. It can also leave TSMC slow to back technologies that challenge its existing business, and by the time their value is clear, other suppliers may have secured the key customer relationships.
@negligible_cap 2 clicks

Negligible Capital on X

$NFLX
@convequity

Convequity on X

WSJ’s “$750B Anthropic compute bill”, which includes deals still being negotiated, is overblown as a panic. It isn't $750B a year. It's spread over about 10 years. By year 5, the fixed compute bill is about $104B a year. The math, stress-tested: assume compute eats a deliberately punishing 56% of revenue (far above where a scaled AI lab should settle), still leaving a 20% operating margin after other costs of ~24%. $104B / 56% ≈ $186B revenue in year 5 $186B / ~$40B revenue per GW ≈ 4.6 GW required $186B is also only ~2.8x today's $67B run rate. That's ~23% growth a year for five years, far slower than Anthropic is growing now. Demand isn't the problem. On paper, 4.6 GW is well inside the ~13.8 GW Anthropic has already lined up according to our ABBX. And it mostly pays as capacity comes online. The catch: what if the GW roadmap doesn't fully materialise? Only ~1.9 GW is live today. Getting even 4.6 GW running on Earth means beating power shortages, slow permits and growing local opposition to data centres. So the real risk isn't demand, it's delivery. That's why $SPCX matters. If Starship makes orbital compute work, it sidesteps the grid, the permits and the politics. The tide lifts all boats, and Anthropic is one of the biggest.
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

Our AI Bubble Barometer (ABBX) says the hyperscaler complex is not yet in bubble territory. Across the hyperscalers and neo-clouds we track, enterprise value relative to the capital invested in the business has fallen from 7.67x at the 15 May 2026 series start to 6.12x at the 15 Oct 2026 close. Two-year forward returns on that capital were 3.07x the cost of capital in Q2'26, down from Q1'26. Still comfortably value-creating, but the direction is lower, which fits this stage of the cycle: data centres and chips go on the books immediately while the revenue they earn arrives later. Q3 2026 reporting starts with Meta ($META) on Wed 21 Oct after the close, with Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon the following week. We will watch whether forward returns keep falling as the capital base grows ahead of revenue. Falling returns alongside rising valuation multiples would be our classic bubble signal.
@convequity 2 clicks

Convequity on X

$META's Muse download numbers measure Meta's distribution, which was never in doubt. What decides whether Muse is a business is what the agent completes for a user, and nothing reported this week measures that. Sensor Tower puts Muse among the fastest US app launches on record, with early retention above the average for rival AI apps, and says a large and rising share of Meta's own ad spend now goes to it. That ad spend likely explains much of the install curve, and Meta can run the same ads for any product it owns. 1. Tasks completed. Nothing Meta or Sensor Tower has reported says how many sessions end in a booking, a purchase or a message sent for the user. Those are what a user would pay for, and in our view they are also where a merchant fee could come from. 2. Where the revenue shows up first. In our view Muse's first financial effect is on the ad business Meta already runs. When shopping happens inside Muse, Meta sees the whole path from what a user wants to what they buy, which sharpens its ad targeting. If users start shopping in Muse, Meta can also sell sponsored placement in its answers. Further out, ads could become part of the conversation itself, something we suggested earlier for Meta AI and which applies even more to an agent like Muse. A user preparing for their first marathon with Muse could be offered trainers, energy gels and hydration products in a conversational manner as the plan takes shape, rather than seeing an ad placed beside it. We expect Muse to show up in ad pricing before it appears as a subscription or a take rate. 3. The sharing suspension. Meta paused conversation sharing after security researchers found shared chats could expose personal and business information. That suggests people are already giving Muse real work with real data and sharing it with colleagues. It also means workplace use will meet the data-handling limits that slowed enterprise use of consumer chatbots. A real catalyst for $META will be Meta disclosing how many tasks and transactions Muse completes, especially if the numbers are impressive.

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Research update

S&P Global research will assess Platts, Kensho and ratings growth; Benefit Systems’ 72% YTD rally changed its valuation, while Netflix and…

SPGI $136BICE $96B
Global Outperformers 3 clicks

Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXXV

Quanta Services’ backlog rose 63% year over year to $64 billion as shares fell 30%, while AI power and data-center construction demand…

PWR $77B
Monte Independent Investment Research 2 clicks

No title

SpaceX’s $24 billion Starbase power plant, Microsoft’s Oracle capacity cuts, Riot’s $72 billion AI lease and Quanta’s sell-off frame…

PWR $77BORCL $363B
Monte Independent Investment Research 3 clicks

Insider activity October 2026

Asian insider buying reached $2.9 billion in October, the highest since 2018, with South Korea and Thailand leading.

BKRKY $23B
Asian Century Stocks 2 clicks

Quick Value #337 - Dana Inc (DAN)

Dana is combining with Eaton’s Mobility unit via a 1Q27 Reverse Morris Trust after selling a division, delevering and accelerating buybacks.

ETN $141B
Value Don't Lie 3 clicks

Roblox: Capture This Moment

Roblox’s Q3 FY26 DAUs fell year over year for the first time, while bookings declined 12% to $1.7 billion.

RBLX $35B
TSOH Investment Research 2 clicks

DoorDash and Google

DoorDash and Google.

DASH $79B
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 8 clicks

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