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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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Quantum $QMCO, the tape library maker, just reported a record backlog of nearly $100M as of September 30, more than double the record $45M as of March 31! $QMCO’s revenue rose 42.9% to $89.6M in the September quarter (fiscal Q2), $5.6M above the top of its $82.0M ±$2M guidance, and adjusted EBITDA of $11.1M beat the top of its $6M ±$1M guidance by $4.1M. Secondary storage, mainly tape systems, grew 126.2% from a year earlier to $44.7M, half of revenue, up from 32%, with hyperscale demand up more than 2.6x. CEO Hugues Meyrath said on the March-quarter call in June that $QMCO “should see a lot more tape drives” from $IBM, its drive supplier, in the September and December quarters, letting it convert its tape library backlog into revenue. Instead, backlog more than doubled, and Meyrath said on the September-quarter call that demand remained ahead of supply, “particularly media and tape.” He said $IBM’s “statement of direction” is to double its tape drive output year-over-year, but “we just don’t know how quickly IBM is going to ramp tape drives.” Chief accounting officer Hiral Patel added that revenue beat guidance “primarily due to price and volume mix,” and that she expects pricing volatility from component shortages “to remain a headwind going forward.” $QMCO guided December-quarter revenue to just $91.0M ±$2M, up 1.5% at the midpoint, and said any upside depends on how many components it can get. It also guided adjusted EBITDA down to $9.1M ±$1M from $11.1M, as operating expenses rise with commissions and R&D hiring. That revenue guidance still runs at $364M/year, above the $360M of FY2028 revenue (year ending March 2028) in the base case of my October 28 update. At $19.70/share after hours, close to the $20.25 in that update, $QMCO’s EV is 2.4x TTM revenue, down from 2.8x. It’s also 21.6x the December quarter’s adjusted EBITDA guidance, annualized, down from 34.4x the September quarter’s. So I read the quarter as $QMCO already running at my base case’s revenue, with the bull case’s $400M still depending on $IBM’s drive supply. What I’d want to see in the December-quarter results: 1) IBM: Meyrath saying $IBM’s tape drive output rose, since my bull case assumes it ramps early in 2027. 2) Backlog: Revenue above the $93M top of guidance and backlog below ~$100M, which would mean $QMCO is shipping orders faster than new ones come in. 3) Gross margin: Holding near the September quarter’s 41.0%, even though the guidance midpoints imply under 40% by my math.

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