New Ask Claude or ChatGPT about any stock, using Bullpen. Bullpen in Claude or ChatGPT. 7 days free
Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Tuesday, November 10, 2026

Back to the front page

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I turned Toast’s $TOST 2027 framework into an adjusted EBITDA estimate, to see what the restaurant software and payments company trades at on next year’s numbers. Incoming CFO Michael Senno will own the 2027 numbers, and he already set the frame on the Q3 call. He said he’s “confident in the 20%+ framework” for recurring gross profit growth (Q4 is guided to 22-24%), but expects “very modest margin progression next year” after a ~36% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026, since $TOST wants room to keep investing in its newer markets. Those newer markets (enterprise, international, and retail) are nearing $200M of ARR and doubling for a second straight year, per CEO Aman Narang, and Senno said the core business already earns margins over 40%. At $34.67/share, $TOST’s enterprise value is $18.3B ($20.1B market cap on 581M shares, less $1.89B of cash and marketable securities, with no debt), or 21.6x 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance. In my August 10 update, I said I’d add if a pullback took $TOST down to the high teens on forward EV/EBITDA. On the 2026 guide, that’s ~$29/share, which the stock briefly touched at the start of October. Reading Senno’s “very modest margin progression” as a margin near 2026’s ~36%, 20% recurring gross profit growth would mean ~$1.0B of 2027 adjusted EBITDA. So on 2027 numbers, the stock already trades at ~18x, in the high teens.

Investor Letters

All letters

The AutoNation Story

AutoNation shed rentals and megastores, focused on dealerships, and retired 91.1% of its shares through buybacks after its 1990s roll-up…

AN $6.1B
Cannibal Stocks 1 click

The 10-Q Fills In the Buyback

Empire State Realty Trust bought $86.1 million of stock through November 6, while corrected sum-of-the-parts values range from $9.12 to…

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 1 click

No title

SpaceX’s $24 billion Starbase power plant, Microsoft’s Oracle capacity cuts, Riot’s $72 billion AI lease and Quanta’s sell-off frame…

PWR $77BRIOT $5.8B
Monte Independent Investment Research 1 click

Insider activity October 2026

Asian insider buying reached $2.9 billion in October, the highest since 2018, with South Korea and Thailand leading.

BKRKY $23B
Asian Century Stocks 1 click
BTU · long

Peabody Energy Corporation

Peabody Energy, ticker BTU, is a low-cost producer of thermal and metallurgical coal with mines in the United States and Australia.

BTU $2.1B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (08/28/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup tracks Dick’s Sporting Goods’ Foot Locker setback and Brown-Forman’s internal debate over a potential Pernod Ricard…

DKS $13B
TSOH Investment Research

QXO Inc.

QXO is building a North American construction-products distributor through Beacon, Kodiak and TopBuild, targeting $18.1 billion of combined…

QXO $12B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 79 of 282

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

362 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.