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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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Insider activity October 2026

Asian insider buying reached $2.9 billion in October, the highest since 2018, with South Korea and Thailand leading. The report highlights Bank Rakyat Indonesia among five purchases.

BKRKY $23B
Asian Century Stocks 1 click

From X

@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

QXO's $QXO CEO Brad Jacobs just announced his ninth company, which he'll run as chairman and CEO while keeping both roles at QXO. His firm, Jacobs Private Equity, is putting $900M of a $1B investment into CKX Lands $CKX, a small Louisiana land company that will be renamed and operate "in an industry to be determined," in a deal expected to close in early 2027. Jacobs started $QXO the same way in 2024, when his firm put $900M of a $1B investment into SilverSun Technologies, a small software reseller, and renamed it QXO. $QXO pre-released its Q3 results on November 9, three days before its full report, for a call that also covered Jacobs' new venture. Q3 sales rose 79% y/y to $4.90B, and adjusted EBITDA rose 85% to $557M, lifting the margin to 11.4% from 8.4% in Q2. In my August 16 update, I wrote that TopBuild, the insulation distributor and installer $QXO bought on July 1, would be the first acquisition that lifts the blended margin rather than pulling it down. TopBuild made an 18.4% adjusted EBITDA margin on $6.2B of sales in 2025, or ~$285M/quarter on ~$1.55B. If TopBuild earned that average in Q3, the rest of $QXO (its roofing business plus Kodiak, the lumber and building materials distributor it bought on April 1) made ~$272M on ~$3.34B of sales, an ~8.1% margin. That's the same $272M as Q2, and less than the $301M $QXO made in Q3 2025, before it owned Kodiak or TopBuild. So unless TopBuild fell short of its 2025 pace, the margin gain came from what $QXO bought, not from Jacobs improving the businesses it already owned. Jacobs says ending his $XPO, $GXO, and $RXO chairmanships in 2025 gave him the capacity for CKX. $QXO also named Ken West, who led three business segments at Honeywell $HON, president and COO as of September 1 to run its day-to-day operations. At ~$13.50/share, even after a ~17% jump on November 9, $QXO still trades in the low-to-mid teens my June 7 deep dive had as the bear case, where margins stall. The ~$24.60 base case, where combined margins move toward 14% by 2028, would be an ~82% gain. What I'd want to see from here: 1) TopBuild: Its Q3 adjusted EBITDA, if the November 12 report breaks it out, to confirm what the rest of $QXO earned. 2) Leverage: Net debt as of September 30 vs. the $7-9B I estimated in June, with Q3 interest expense up to $163M from $38M in Q2. 3) Management: Whether any $QXO executives move to CKX before the deal closes in early 2027.
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

On our latest podcast, we spent some time talking about why Wendy's $WEN stock went up - instead of going down - last week after it turned down an acquisition offer by Trian Fund Management. The more interesting part was probably the insider purchases of two different biotech companies by Baker Bros. In one of those cases they were willing to buy after the stock went up more than 200% in less than two months. No wonder both $MDGL and $KOD are up more than 6% today.
@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

Evan, it's disingenuous to offer Waymo as evidence of an instance where they should NOT have raised external capital. Fact is, $GOOGL Search is one of the most profitable and dominant businesses of all time supporting billions of cumulative earnings, FCF, and trillions in market cap. The margin for error at $SNAP is much thinner; the cumulative score card at SNAP measured by stock price, is not even in the same universe as $GOOGL. Sure they could have funded Waymo internally. Maybe they should have. But SNAP is not GOOGL. Not even in the same conversation.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Rising memory chip prices are hitting Toast’s $TOST hardware business, so the restaurant software and payments company has been buying chips early. $TOST’s hardware and professional services gross loss widened to $85M in Q3 from $57M a year ago, and the $225M lost through September already tops the $220M lost in all of 2025. It doesn’t help that hardware revenue was flat at $45M while hardware costs rose 29% to $130M. Management has tied that pressure to rising memory chip prices, which are largely outside Toast’s control. What $TOST can control is when and how it buys, and that’s exactly what it’s been doing. It’s been buying memory chips early, which took inventory from $114M (as of December 31, 2025) to $244M (as of September 30), with another $191M of hardware purchases committed over the next 12 months. President and CFO Elena Gomez said on the Q3 call that “nothing has really changed” since the Q2 call, when she said Toast had already cut the expected memory cost for both 2026 and 2027 by using earlier hardware generations, cheaper memory, and spot-market buying. $TOST also started buying Toast Capital loans from its bank partner and holding them itself in 2026, buying $145M through September after none in the first nine months of 2025. Gomez said that lets Toast keep the full return instead of just a fee for arranging the loans. But Toast now also takes the loss when a restaurant doesn’t repay, just as the FTC challenges its practice of making the full loan due when a customer cancels. So far, Gomez says defaults are “within our expectations,” and most new loans will still go through Toast’s existing program rather than its own balance sheet.

Investor Letters

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Quick Value #337 - Dana Inc (DAN)

Dana is combining with Eaton’s Mobility unit via a 1Q27 Reverse Morris Trust after selling a division, delevering and accelerating buybacks.

DAN $2.1B
Value Don't Lie 2 clicks

STRL: 80 new electricians a week

Sterling’s $4.1 billion backlog faces Texas permitting risk after a governor proposed a moratorium, while Connexion, Capital Asset Planning…

STRL $7.6B
Trade Ideas Flow 1 click

Roblox: Capture This Moment

Roblox’s Q3 FY26 DAUs fell year over year for the first time, while bookings declined 12% to $1.7 billion.

RBLX $35B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

DoorDash and Google

DoorDash and Google.

DASH $79B
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 4 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Four

Vicor’s Federal Circuit hearing put Foxconn’s disputed patent license under pressure, reinforcing its AI server royalty model and licensing…

VICR $6.8B
CV's Substack 3 clicks
FND · long

FLOOR & DECOR HLDGS

Floor & Decor operates 281 warehouse-format stores selling hard-surface flooring and accessories nationwide.

FND $5B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Floor & Decor 3Q26: Business Update

Floor & Decor’s 3Q26 sales rose 3% while comparable sales fell 1.4%; it cut 2027 openings to 10-15 as high mortgage rates pressure…

FND $5B
Speedwell Memos 1 click

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