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Monday, November 9, 2026

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STRL: 80 new electricians a week

Sterling’s $4.1 billion backlog faces Texas permitting risk after a governor proposed a moratorium, while Connexion, Capital Asset Planning and BQE Water present concentrated, cash-heavy…

STRL $7.6B
Trade Ideas Flow

From X

@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

While rummaging through insider purchases last night, I came across a company that I almost discarded at first look. It scored poorly in our quantitive model (IA Score of 36), free cash flow was just a smidgen positive in 2025, debt on the balance sheet was growing and it remains unprofitable. Yet an independent director with deep industry experience was buying. This is his fourth insider purchase since joining the board in 2023 and he picked up $408,600 worth of stock according to the Form 4 filed yesterday. The company is California-based Alphatec Holdings $ATEC and they make a robotics platform focused on spinal surgery. The stock is down an astounding 62% over the last year. Dave Demski, the independent director that bought shares, used to previously be the COO and then the CEO of Globus Medical $GMED Globus Medical built a robotics platform to help with spinal surgery, hip reconstruction and more. During Demski's nearly 5 years as CEO of Globus Medical from 2017 to 2022, revenue increased from about $700 million to over $1 billion and the stock more than doubled despite the disruption due to COVID-19. So what made me take a closer look at Alphatec? I love companies that could be at a point of inflection and I'll let the income statement speak for itself. Last quarter the company almost broke even and free cash flow was positive. Year-over-year revenue growth was about 13% but it missed consensus estimates. For the full year they expected adjusted EBITDA of $137 million and free cash flow of $10 million. With an enterprise value of just $1.65 billion, I can see this company being an acquisition target for Medtronic $MDT, Zimmer, Boston Scientific or more importantly Globus Medical.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Compute & Accelerators screen (43 names). Our Rule of X = forward growth x a sector coefficient + free cash flow margin - SBC %. The coefficient starts from Bessemer’s 2.3 for software and is scaled by how much profit a sector earns per $ of growth versus its cost of capital. More profit and cheaper capital means growth counts for more. Compute mostly runs 2.3 to 2.7. Colours: green = high score, cheap, or price down (more upside from here). High score + attractive valuation + flat or falling price: $NVDA (DCF 91% discount), $AVGO (94%), $ASML (EV/FCF 24.8x). High score but priced for it: $AEHR (EV/GP 95x), $AMD (EV/FCF 125x). Data from Koyfin, prices at 30 Oct close. A screen, not advice. Do your own research.
@KEDM_COM 1 click

KEDM.com on X

More on #nicotine: While the market potential in the US is many times larger than in Sweden and Norway, the dynamics are very different. In Sweden, the market is mature and largely saturated, with pouch growth mostly cannibalizing Snus. In the U.S., it is more fragmented and experimental. The large players include Philip Morris $PM’s Zyn, British American Tobacco $BTI’s Velo and Altria $MO’s On!. There are some niche brands, of which Alp is the most notable because of its promotion by Tucker Carlson. It is owned by a JV between Tucker and Turning Point Brands $TPB. TPB is widely covered in our Discord channel, mainly by KEDM subscriber @stonksbusinessman.
@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Icahn owns ~33% himself if you count the Nomura swaps. The new Ares credit agreement limits buyers to 35% of shares outstanding, so $MNRO can let the poison pill expire and Icahn can immediately move the Nomura swaps to himself OR he could keep them as swaps and add another 16%+ of shares instead.... I digressed there a bit, but the initial point was going to be that they already technically own essentially 50%. DOMO Capital owns 1-2% of the outstanding shares as well...
@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

Jassy said that $AMZN capex will increase meanigfully in 2027, which we know is off a base of $220B in 2026. Before the AI build, the average annual capex increase was ~$9B. A "meaningful" increase in 2027 would be $90-100B or so, putting 2027 capex around $315B. Given that OCF has also increased nicely, approaching $200mn annually exiting this year, and +34%. At what point does the story, or will it, become about 2028 and 2029 positive FCF inflection? Even if capex stays high (say $300B which is crazy but who knows), assuming OCF growth continues which seems reasonable, we start to look at substantial FCF most likely hitting in 2028. There's a path to $450B in OCF (2029/2030) (less $300mn in capex equalling $150B in FCF. It's also possible that capex intensity of the build phase steps DOWN, just given the size of this spend. What if 2030 capex is back to $220B? We are looking at run rate FCF of $230B annually which is $23 in fcf/share. This is the map that Jassy and Bezos see. Its a long term plan and it does not match with the short term-focused market. But if they execute, the map is highly compelling and does justify today's spend cycle. Note that the highest FCF ever for AMZN prior to this cycle was $26B. So we are looking to spend for 3-4 years to 9-10x FCF on the other side.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

$AAOI signs $194.4M/year contract with Yuunan Germanium. This is for 2027 alone, with a 5 year contract. Given an implied total of ~$970M in InP substrates over 5 years (before price hikes) Hmm just some thoughts: - AOI laser capacity expansion seems bigger than what’s disclosed based on procurement patterns? 180K wafers seems like an extreme amount compared to what’s needed for lasers within their own transceivers… if they can consume all of that So maybe we’ll hear about a new UHP laser contracts in earnings, after $LITE announced a $5B contract. - read through on $AXTI is positive, given they’ll probably be #1 in InP substrates manufacturing scale in the future + have contracts with $LITE and $COHR. - positive AOI was able to secure capacity during the bottleneck More spend is probably the boogeyman in the AI trade, but it’s a good signal for earnings.

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Vicor Update, Part Four

Vicor’s Federal Circuit hearing put Foxconn’s disputed patent license under pressure, reinforcing its AI server royalty model and licensing…

VICR $6.8B
CV's Substack 2 clicks

NEW POSITION: Google LEAPS

Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and…

GOOGL $3.5T
Hated Moats 1 click

Floor & Decor 3Q26: Business Update

Floor & Decor’s 3Q26 sales rose 3% while comparable sales fell 1.4%; it cut 2027 openings to 10-15 as high mortgage rates pressure…

FND $5B
Speedwell Memos 1 click
MTMTY · short

Metlen Energy & Metals PLC

Metlen Energy & Metals faces a 40% short case centered on its overpriced aluminium, alumina and Greek power businesses.

MTMTY $6.8B
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