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Monday, November 9, 2026

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Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office assets to fund future deals.

XRN $402M
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

From X

@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

I actually thought $MRVL would buy $SIVE given smaller MC, but they went ahead and bought $LITE instead. Since it looked like Marvell was heading the Broadcom direction with vertical integration and needed lasers. As you said, $SIVE / $AAOI are much more strategically valuable now (both as independent suppliers + M&A prospects). Never crossed my mind Lumentum would get bought... but this sets an example for other players on what you can do now.
@ParadisLabs

Paradis on X

$MRVL to acquire $LITE in an all-stock transaction. - Implied enterprise value of $115 billion for Lumentum. - Lumentum stockholders will receive 4.5 shares of Marvell common stock for each share of Lumentum common stock. - This represents ~$1,132 per share of Lumentum common stock and a premium of approximately 23.9% based on each company’s price as of October 28, 2026. - Marvell stockholders will own ~67% of the combined company. Lumentum stockholders will own ~33%. - Matt Murphy to remain as CEO of the combined company. - Transaction expected to close in H1 2028, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Considering $LITE (that is sold out into 2029) is going to get swallowed up by $MRVL next week. I see $AAOI / $SIVE / $COHR are going to be a lot more strategically valuable in the West. Both for M&A prospects (which deserves a premium) so companies can vertically integrate like $AVGO. + players are going to be incentivized to qualify other light sources not owned by their competitor. $AAOI has a ton of optionality to supply CPO lasers in 2027 if they buy transceiver laser supply merchant, since they have the technology now. But 2028 they'll have capacity available AFAIK. AOI also had a lot of opportunities to sign LTAs but didn't, so there's a lot more uncertainty alongside the series of $600M ATMs. But we'll see how they're doing, especially with their 1.6T shipments... Laser chokepoint part of the optical supply chain is extraordinarily strong
@Mr_Neutral_Man

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

As with all over supply, time tends to take care of the problem. Im old enough to remember when SFH were generally thought if being in over supply forever Getting through this has taken wayyy longer than most folks imagined I’m waiting for $CPT to report. I kind of knew $MAA was gonna have tough/bad new/renewal mix I think it’s also part of their own fault where they push renewals too much
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

We've finally made it to November... holy crap October was brutal. Per Morgan Stanley data, the recent hedge fund de-grossing was the highest in the past 10 years. Exceeding the: - 2016 Chinese stock market crash - 2018 Volmageddon - March 2020 COVID crash - 2021 Archegos collapse / Evergrande crisis - 2022 bear market Goldman's prime brokerage desk reported on the 26th that it had also seen ~$20B of selling over 2 weeks vs. $23 billion during July's entire unwind. From $HOOD short interest data, from Sept -> Oct short float also increased from: $AAOI: 12.5% -> 19.84%+ $AEVA: 11% -> 25.64%+ $CBRS: 12.25% -> 20.12%+ $AEHR: 14.33% -> 17.93%+ $TSEM: 2.15% -> 4.73%+ $CIFR: 19.94% -> 25.39%+ $LWLG: 15.24% ->19.12%+ $OKLO: 17.72% ->22.93%+ $CRWV: 17.91% ->26.58%+ Substantial deleveraging coinciding with surging short interest, kinda looks like a July setup after Midterms? The recent rotation also kinda pushed names like $CRWD and cybersecurity to bubble valuations into hundreds of fwd P/E... Earnings on many AI capex + bottlenecks (not all like $INTC) looked strong: eg. $AXTI guided annualized Q4 = 23.7x P/E now, not including potential InP substrate hikes + capacity expansion that can compress it to single digits. - $SKHY (~$59B operating profit) casually making more than trillion dollar companies like Amazon ($28.1B operating profit), backed with 5Y LTAs. - No signs of $MSFT / $AMZN materially cutting capex, while $SPCX secures $40B more for GPU procurement. Slightly painful, but I think the AI capex trade (specifically photonics/memory) is a generational opportunity, with extreme volatility in between.

Investor Letters

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DoorDash and Google

DoorDash and Google.

DASH $86B
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 3 clicks

Diamond Estates: Research Note

Diamond Estates converts $4.7 million of Lassonde debentures at a 69% premium, cutting debt to $10.9 million and raising Lassonde ownership…

LSDAF $1.2B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 1 click

Vicor Update, Part Four

Vicor’s Federal Circuit hearing put Foxconn’s disputed patent license under pressure, reinforcing its AI server royalty model and licensing…

VICR $6.8B
CV's Substack 2 clicks

NEW POSITION: Google LEAPS

Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and…

GOOGL $3.5T
Hated Moats 1 click

Floor & Decor 3Q26: Business Update

Floor & Decor’s 3Q26 sales rose 3% while comparable sales fell 1.4%; it cut 2027 openings to 10-15 as high mortgage rates pressure…

FND $5B
Speedwell Memos 1 click
MTMTY · short

Metlen Energy & Metals PLC

Metlen Energy & Metals faces a 40% short case centered on its overpriced aluminium, alumina and Greek power businesses.

MTMTY $6.8B
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