Big Short Investor Explains How the AI Bubble Could Burst
Steve Eisman argues the AI boom rests on a handful of companies and hundreds of billions in infrastructure spending, risking recession and a sharp market correction.
Monday, November 9, 2026
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@DeepSailCapital 1 clickDeep Sail Capital on X
Sobering one: of 31 distinct names, only 2 have actually reached my Realistic Valuation target. $EVTL and $RR. Median downside capture on the Sept '25 list: 73% of the decline I forecast. On the 2026 lists: 22-41%. Direction right. Magnitude still pending. This means there is still lots of meat on the bone in many of these names.
Deep Sail Capital on X
What I'm carrying into the next list: → Short arithmetic, not narratives → Overleveraged and Industry Bubble earn their slot → Potential Fraud has to clear a much higher bar → Stop re-shorting $RUM Full table and methodology at Shorts & Squeeze Corner.
Deep Sail Capital on X
Across all 110 position-instances: Average short return: +25.7%Median: +23.1%Hit rate: 81% — 89 of 110 names fell Best call, and it wasn't close: $EVTL Vertical Aerospace $5.00 → $0.58 Top performer on all five lists. The Sept '25 entry is +88%. Even the July '26 entry is +66%. The company flagged going-concern risk in a filing this month.
@DeepSailCapital 1 clickDeep Sail Capital on X
The rest of the Sept '25 podium — a full year of holding: $EVTL +88% $SMR +77% $LVWR +76% $OKLO +73% $BTQ +73% $SOUN +69% $RGTI +67% 19 of the 20 names on that list fell. Nineteen.
@DeepSailCapital Deep Sail Capital on X
Biggest miss was $RUM. $RUM was my worst pick on four of five lists. Average: -23%. $PLTR: -13% average across four lists. Right on the multiple, wrong on the stock, repeatedly. $CVNA: -4% average — and I had it tagged Potential Fraud.
SG on X
@BertrandPirel to what do you attribute the substantial availability (1.85m shares) and low borrow cost (3.25%) for $GPRO at IBKR?
BDC on X
Astute observation here. $STLN could not be better situated for the current environment, imo.
@valuedontlie Colin King on X
August quick value write-ups... 1) $CALM -- cheap P/B mean reversion idea 2) $MNRO -- strategic review + activist + CEO incentive 3) $FOUR -- beaten down roll-up 4) $MKTW -- fundamental inflection point
Investor Letters
All letters- Spheria — Global Smaller Companies Fund month ended 31 October 2026 SFM $4.6BSN $31B
- Forager Funds Management October 2026 OFX $70MPLT $95M
- Rathbones October 2026 SBGSF $143BSIEGY $233B
- FCL Capital October 2026 ANPDF $28BASML $576B
- Protean Funds October 2026 AAK $4.8BLFABF $13B
- Horizon Kinetics 3rd Quarter 2026 TPL $19BLB $5.1B
- NS Partners Q3 2026 AAVMY $39BALBKY $12B
- Invesco — Small Cap Value Fund Q3 2026 AVTR $10BCRL $16B
Anthropic vs Meta: Room to Be Wrong
Anthropic and Meta carry $1.5 trillion valuations on distinct AI bets: Meta directs roughly 60% of capex to MSL, while Anthropic shifts…
Quick Value #337 - Dana Inc (DAN)
Dana is combining with Eaton’s Mobility unit via a 1Q27 Reverse Morris Trust after selling a division, delevering and accelerating buybacks.
SSR Mining: A Very Well Positioned Company For Long Term Growth
Daniel Bell 1 click
Seed Corn
Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office…
STRL: 80 new electricians a week
Sterling’s $4.1 billion backlog faces Texas permitting risk after a governor proposed a moratorium, while Connexion, Capital Asset Planning…
One Regulator Could Soon Unlock Altria And Cronos' Cannabis Fortune
Adult-use cannabis rescheduling would open Altria’s 42% Cronos stake to a U.S. market rerating.
Aseity Research 4 clicks
Roblox: Capture This Moment
Roblox’s Q3 FY26 DAUs fell year over year for the first time, while bookings declined 12% to $1.7 billion.
DoorDash and Google
DoorDash and Google.
Improvements Are Still Evident At C&F Financial Corporation
Crimson And Gold Research 3 clicks
41 Stock Pitches (2nd-8th November) 🟢
Blue Dolphin Energy trades near 1.3 times earnings as its Texas refinery benefits from diesel shortages, with projected 2026 EBITDA of $111…
FND · long FLOOR & DECOR HLDGS
Floor & Decor operates 281 warehouse-format stores selling hard-surface flooring and accessories nationwide.
The TL Podcast for November 9th: The spy who loved me
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang faced new revelations after a week of political upheaval and a broad technology-stock sell-off.
Diamond Estates: Research Note
Diamond Estates converts $4.7 million of Lassonde debentures at a 69% premium, cutting debt to $10.9 million and raising Lassonde ownership…
Jensen Huang’s Affair, The Culper Report, Huang’s Righteousness
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang faces an unverified allegation involving a Chinese spy.
Speedrun | Upcoming Events This Week - [November 2 - November 6, 2026]
Week ahead lists Nvidia, earnings, inflation and PPI releases alongside Iran conflict developments.
Vicor Update, Part Four
Vicor’s Federal Circuit hearing put Foxconn’s disputed patent license under pressure, reinforcing its AI server royalty model and licensing…
Moody’s: Fasten Your Seat Belts, But Not for AI
Moody’s ratings business faces potential deceleration, while AI-related debt issuance and anti-data-center politics pose less risk than…
IREN Is Down 71%. Should You Buy the Dip?
IREN has fallen 71% despite AI Cloud revenue rising from $7.3 million to $200 million quarterly and more than $20 billion in contracted…
NEW POSITION: Google LEAPS
Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and…
Expert Call | EMIB-T Packaging, Glass Core Roadmap & 2027 ABF Substrate Supply Outlook
Intel’s EMIB-T, glass-core roadmap and 2027 ABF substrate supply outlook are the focus of an expert call.
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Sectors
Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.
