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Monday, November 9, 2026

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Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office assets to fund future deals.

XRN $402M
Orphan REITs 1 click

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

From $14.47/share, you’re risking a $4.66 loss (-32.2%) on Quantum $QMCO in my bear case for a $20.40 gain (+141.0%) in my bull case, before any fallout from the CFO firing, which none of the three cases counts. Here’s where $QMCO’s stock could be by mid-2027 in my bear, base, and bull cases. I value each case on FY2028 revenue (year ending March 2028), since the market will be pricing that year by then. Each case’s value is FY2028 revenue times the multiple, plus the $77.0M of cash, over 44.6M diluted shares (44.7M in the bull case). Bear case ($9.81, -32.2%) The bear case assumes $IBM’s drive supply stays flat, Toshiba’s added capacity ends the disk shortage that helped push customers toward tape, and the “temporary benefit from higher pricing” $QMCO got in the June quarter fades. That implies FY2028 revenue of $300M, 8.5% below the $328M annual run rate in September-quarter guidance, at 1.2x, the multiple at the $9.42 PIPE price, for a value of $9.81/share. Base case ($17.89, +23.6%) The base case assumes $IBM raises drive output gradually through 2027, letting $QMCO ship more of its backlog each quarter. That implies FY2028 revenue of $360M, 9.8% above the $328M run rate, at 2.0x, a discount to $HPE’s 2.3x TTM revenue (as of October 27) for $QMCO’s open material weaknesses, for a value of $17.89/share. I use $HPE rather than $IBM (4.2x), since most of $IBM’s revenue comes from software and consulting rather than hardware. Bull case ($34.87, +141.0%) The bull case assumes $IBM ramps drive output early in 2027, the backlog converts quickly, and more hyperscalers (the largest cloud and internet companies) buy $QMCO’s Scalar i7 tape library. For reference, CEO Hugues Meyrath said the i7 deal $QMCO won from a hyperscaler in Asia-Pacific in the June quarter was valued at “well over eight figures.” That implies FY2028 revenue of $400M, 22.0% above the $328M run rate, at 3.7x, the multiple at my August update, for a value of $34.87/share. Winning more hyperscalers would also make $QMCO even more dependent on a few customers. Its top five customers made up 27% of FY2026 revenue, up from 21% in FY2025, and one customer made up more than 10%, when none did in FY2025. But the takeaway is that even the bull case, with faster $IBM supply and August’s multiple, lands just 1.1% above the $34.50 peak.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

I listened to a Bill Gurley @bgurley interview on @TKPPodcast, great interview by the way Bill. He compared the US AI labs to farmers who go to the market and just trade goods, whereas in China the farmers go to the market, trade goods, and are forced to share best practices and help each other implement them. In his words: “The competitive dynamic in China is more intense. Because it is more intense, everyone has chosen to go open source. That creates a system that is capable of innovating far faster than the competitive system we have here.” China’s way results in exponential learning and growth, which is pretty clear. Charlie Munger was a notorious China bull late in life: “The reason that I invested in China is I get so much better companies at so much lower prices.” Sentiment has also got to account for something. China’s CSI 300 just confirmed a bear market, down 20.2% from its June peak, and 19 years later it has still never closed above its 2007 high. On October 23 the Hang Seng Tech index fell 5% to a two-year low and the CSI AI index fell 3.3% in a single day. I am expressing this macro view through a bottoms-up investment I found: a shareholder-friendly, founder-led company paying an 11%+ dividend and authorized to buy back about 3% of its market cap. Revenue grew 33% in the first half of 2026, net income grew 34%, and paying users went from 3.8 million in 2021 to 18.2 million in 2025, a 48% CAGR. It has been preparing for AI since the beginning. The founder: “From the very first day of the company’s founding, we had our own AI algorithm engineers and big data team… we began applying these cutting-edge technologies as early as 2019.” Today about 70% of staff are R&D, AI-generated code is approaching half of all R&D code, and net margins run near 30%. All for the grand price of about 2.5x earnings, with a ~$494M market cap sitting below roughly $630M of unencumbered cash. Did I mention there are forced sellers selling for completely non-economic reasons because they are VC investors? VCs including Hike, Northern Light, Qiming, SIG and Sequoia China owned about 55% of the company after the IPO. Qiming alone has sold 43% of its stake in nine months, from 19.4M shares to 11.1M, per its 13G filings. Here is my writeup on Yuanbao $YB:
@valuedontlie

Colin King on X

Ugly chart at $APTV Maybe one of my favorite setups right now despite "tough industry" dynamics... Lapping one-time VGNT spin costs so FCF should jump to $1B+ next year (on $8B market cap = 12.5% FCF yield) and committed to buyback stock with 100% of FCF through 2027 Assuming no operational/industry improvement, it's not hard to get $7-8 EPS by 2028 (vs. $5.70 in '26) As a bonus, this management team has done 2 spins in 10 years and wouldn't be surprised if they spin the (better) engineered components business

Investor Letters

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DoorDash and Google

DoorDash and Google.

DASH $86B
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 3 clicks

Diamond Estates: Research Note

Diamond Estates converts $4.7 million of Lassonde debentures at a 69% premium, cutting debt to $10.9 million and raising Lassonde ownership…

LSDAF $1.2B
Atrium Research - Equity Research

Vicor Update, Part Four

Vicor’s Federal Circuit hearing put Foxconn’s disputed patent license under pressure, reinforcing its AI server royalty model and licensing…

VICR $6.8B
CV's Substack 2 clicks

NEW POSITION: Google LEAPS

Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and…

GOOGL $3.5T
Hated Moats 1 click
DB · long

Deutsche Bank AG

Deutsche Bank trades at 1.0x tangible book, with projected ROTCE above 13% and a favorable setup ahead of earnings.

DB $63B
Value Investors Club

New Position (ONON): Game is On

On Holding (ONON) is gaining sportswear share, expanding store space and launching soccer with Kylian Mbappé as investors debate U.S.

ONON $13B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

When the Ads Come to the Data

Meta’s Muse could place ads inside its AI agent by letting a private VM select offers from advertisers without sharing user data with…

META $1.6T
MBI Deep Dives 7 clicks

Deep Dive: Intuit ($INTU)

Intuit’s $21.4 billion software franchise faces AI-driven pricing pressure in tax and accounting, even as QuickBooks and TurboTax retain…

INTU $92B
Rebound Capital 4 clicks

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