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Monday, November 9, 2026

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@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

Factor and sector rotations off of day to day and often conflicting data points have been a hallmark of the 2026 market. Not sure if its algos or just heavy retail participation or both. But I would say this: stop reacting to the daily data points - especially during earnings. It's stupid and a recipe for getting chopped into oblivion. While earnings reports are useful for directional trends on sectors, every company is different. Obviously. And different things impact quarters. To wit - its Thursday. Sunday night: AI trade over. Monday after Anthropic S1 out: Oh there's a healthcare TAM here and inherent operating leverage on compute, buy AI! Tuesday: AI stable, sell $SPOT! Weds: Send AI Weds PM: $GOOGL sucks, puke it, its over. Buy $META (why? idk). $NOW sucks puke it. Capex peak in sight (in line with consensus) puke AI. $MSFT good, buy it. Thurs: AI over, software over buy $SPOT. $MSFT good but its AI and software, sell it. Try and have an investment view anchored in what you believe to be confirming data points you expect to see in coming weeks, months, years. Hedge tactically as the data points inevitably aren't linear. Barbell core investments with tactical trades to hedge and take advantage of the rotational chop. Such trades are best in highly liquid securities. But if you trade like a bipolar lunatic - much like the market has traded - you will not do well.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

First Solar $FSLR trades at 6.7x TTM EBITDA and 10.4x TTM net income, while TOYO Co., Ltd $TOYO trades at just 0.9x and 2.0x. At $3.83/share, $TOYO has a market cap of $163.6M and an EV of $137.2M ($163.6M + $25.7M of bank loans + $51.4M owed to VSUN, an affiliate - $103.5M of cash). It trades at 0.9x TTM EBITDA of $156.4M, 2.0x TTM net income of $80.5M, and 0.78x its $209.8M of book value. Since 80.7% of its H1 revenue came from U.S. end customers, $TOYO’s closest comps are four other listed solar manufacturers selling into the U.S. (TTM multiples as of the October 26 close): → First Solar $FSLR (U.S. thin-film panel maker): 6.7x EV/EBITDA, 10.4x P/E, 1.75x P/B, and down 47.2% from its 2026 high. → Canadian Solar $CSIQ (panel and battery storage maker): 18.8x EV/EBITDA, a net loss, 0.22x P/B, and down 65.2%. → JinkoSolar $JKS (China-based panel maker): A net loss, 0.19x P/B, and down 72.7%. → T1 Energy $TE (Texas panel assembler building a U.S. cell plant): Negative EBITDA, a net loss, 2.95x P/B, and down 82.4%. So the market prices $TOYO’s earnings at 0.9x EBITDA, less than a seventh of First Solar’s 6.7x, a multiple that only makes sense if the four U.S. trade actions on its Ethiopian cells wipe out most of those earnings. Only $TE has fallen further from its 2026 high. I was originally going to write up T1 Energy until I found $TOYO, which offers a more attractive setup mainly because (1) it’s profitable, with $80.5M of TTM net income vs. T1’s $367.8M net loss, (2) it trades at 0.78x book vs. T1’s 2.95x, and (3) it has $26.4M of net cash vs. T1’s $629.2M of net debt.

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