New Ask Claude or ChatGPT about any stock, using Bullpen. Bullpen in Claude or ChatGPT. 7 days free
Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Monday, November 9, 2026

Back to the front page

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

In November 2025, BWX Technologies $BWXT sold $1.25B of 0% convertible notes due November 2030 and used $830.8M of the proceeds to repay its old credit facility. The conversion price is $262.51/share, 80.2% above $145.70, and $131.9M of capped calls offset dilution up to $396.24/share. Dilution has been minimal so far. Diluted shares have held at ~92M since 2023, helped by small buybacks ($30M in 2025). But stock comp rose to $20.1M in H1 2026 from $13.7M a year earlier, although it’s still only 1.1% of revenue, up from 0.9%. Management also said on the Q2 call it doesn’t plan buybacks in 2026, despite $347.6M left on the authorization, so nothing will offset the new shares. Even after paying ~$200M for Precision Components Group (PCG) on July 1, $BWXT’s leverage is within its 2-3x target: → Debt: $2.05B ($400M of 4.125% notes due June 2028, $400M of 4.125% notes due April 2029, and the $1.25B convert). → Cash and liquidity: $400M of cash and $1.7B of total liquidity, including an undrawn $1.25B revolver running to November 2030. → Leverage: 2.7x net debt to TTM adjusted EBITDA, or $1.65B of net debt on $602.1M of EBITDA. The $750M from selling its medical isotope business would cut leverage to 1.5x. → Ratings: Fitch BBB (investment grade) since September 2026; S&P BB+ and Moody’s Ba1, one notch below. → Other obligations: $152.0M of underfunded pension and retiree benefit plans. Net debt has hovered between $1.0B and $1.5B since 2023. $BWXT pays a dividend of $0.27/quarter ($1.08/year, a 0.7% yield), raised from $0.25 in February 2026. The company expects $5.5B of capital to deploy through 2030 at 2-3x leverage, with $3.5B left after capex and dividends. That’s what CFO Mike Fitzgerald said at $BWXT’s Investor Day on September 29, 2026, and he also put organic growth first for the $3.5B. But he said $BWXT is “not anchored to the same size of transactions” it has done before, and the deck lists “Disciplined Acquisitions” among the revenue drivers behind the 2030 targets. In other words, $BWXT has the track record and, once the medical sale closes, the balance sheet to go after its 2030 targets.
@convequity

Convequity on X

We think Google's ($GOOGL) TPU volumes alone could add roughly $11 billion to $14 billion a year to Broadcom ($AVGO) revenue on our illustrative estimates, and Anthropic and OpenAI are a larger opportunity on top. April supply-chain estimates put Google's TPU demand at 4.2 million to 4.5 million units in 2026, rising above 6 million units in 2027. We allow for MediaTek's allocation to rise from around 600,000 units in 2026 to 1 million units in 2027 and assume Broadcom supplies the remainder. At the 6 million-unit level in 2027, that leaves Broadcom with roughly 1.1 million to 1.4 million additional chips compared with 2026. At an illustrative $10,000 of revenue per chip, that would add $11 billion to $14 billion in annual revenue from higher volumes alone. The actual increase will depend on which designs ship and their selling prices. Our working estimates put Anthropic's demand for Broadcom-supplied TPUs at around 1 gigawatt in 2026, rising to 5 gigawatts in 2027. OpenAI's separate custom-chip program has demand estimated at 1.3 gigawatts in 2027 and 5 gigawatts in 2028. Anthropic's TPU purchases overlap with the Google TPU opportunity, so we count those sales once. Together, the Anthropic and OpenAI estimates point to around 10 gigawatts of demand by 2028. Assuming Broadcom earns $10 billion to $20 billion for each gigawatt supplied, that represents a $100 billion to $200 billion revenue opportunity across those deployments.
@convequity

Convequity on X

We added to Tesla ($TSLA) as a long-term holding in physical AI through Optimus and Cybercab, and we keep the position small. Our view is that an affordable, capable Optimus could become an enormous product, extending Tesla's opportunity beyond its vehicle business. Tesla's batteries and its ability to coordinate difficult industrial supply chains add to that potential. The position stays small because reliability in real working environments, affordability and commercialization timing are unproven. Demonstrations alone do not establish that Optimus is ready for sustained use, and commercialization could take longer than investors expect. Reports that China was slowing humanoid-company IPO activity reinforce our concern that financial enthusiasm can advance faster than the underlying technology. A rumored Tesla facility in Ningbo, near Shanghai, could strengthen the industrial case if confirmed. Its proposed role is to coordinate Chinese suppliers and validate components for Optimus V3. The associated target of 50,000 Optimus units by year-end remains unconfirmed and ambitious, and we do not build our case around that volume. Our interest rests on the eventual product opportunity and Tesla's ability to solve production problems.

Investor Letters

All letters

STRL: 80 new electricians a week

Sterling’s $4.1 billion backlog faces Texas permitting risk after a governor proposed a moratorium, while Connexion, Capital Asset Planning…

STRL $7.6B
Trade Ideas Flow 1 click

Roblox: Capture This Moment

Roblox’s Q3 FY26 DAUs fell year over year for the first time, while bookings declined 12% to $1.7 billion.

RBLX $35B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

DoorDash and Google

DoorDash and Google.

DASH $79B
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 4 clicks
FND · long

FLOOR & DECOR HLDGS

Floor & Decor operates 281 warehouse-format stores selling hard-surface flooring and accessories nationwide.

FND $5B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Vicor Update, Part Four

Vicor’s Federal Circuit hearing put Foxconn’s disputed patent license under pressure, reinforcing its AI server royalty model and licensing…

VICR $6.8B
CV's Substack 3 clicks

NEW POSITION: Google LEAPS

Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and…

GOOGL $3.5T
Hated Moats 1 click

Floor & Decor 3Q26: Business Update

Floor & Decor’s 3Q26 sales rose 3% while comparable sales fell 1.4%; it cut 2027 openings to 10-15 as high mortgage rates pressure…

FND $5B
Speedwell Memos 1 click

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 79 of 281

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

360 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.