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Sunday, November 8, 2026

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@Adam_Wyden

Adam D. Wyden on X

Another sleeper factor of $stgw is that given what happened on Election Day, both parties are going to spend crazy amounts of money on ‘28 election. This spend will start in ‘27 as well. The EBITDA growth in ‘27 and ‘28 will be nothing short of breath taking with a high graded mix. 12x 2027 EBITDA of 650 is ~ 28.00 bucks. What if they do 800+ in ‘28? Upside to these numbers if they do more m/a in saas / digital transformation… the only thing that is TRANSFORMING is $STGW. How can 20mm shares be short ? @Mark_Penn @ballan11 @jayleveton @TheRoaringKitty @stoolpresidente @JonahLupton @markminervini This is going much higher.
@Mr_Neutral_Man

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

Small Bay Industrial investors will do everything in SoCal instead of buying $REXR If you’re looking to deploy more than 7 figures in SoCal smallbay industrial, $REXR is much cheaper and literally selling some warehouse to the aggressive buyers Using proceeds to buy back shares further boosting intrinsic value Crazy public arbitrage of private market value DM open if you actually want to get more than 7 figures of exposure to SoCal warehouse
Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” REXR $8B
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Various commentary from Qualcomm, Arm, to Meta executives this week during the AI selloff: $LITE CEO: "You had a comment from the CEO of $IREN and I'd second that. There's a massive disconnect in what we're seeing in our demand books. And what the markets are showing. And yet you're seeing a massive, massive selloff." (Fri, Nov 6) $AMD CEO CNBC: "We're at the very beginning of the adoption cycle, where people can see where AI and superintelligence will take us" "We are seeing demand being higher than supply" (Wed, Nov 4) $ARM CEO regarding a debate whether AI infrastructure spending is about to peak: "I think in some states where it gets harder, other states may pick it up to make it easier, but I do believe strongly that if the US hesitates in any way shape performance in terms of data center buildout... "The rest of the world is ready and willing. There is just huge demand for this capacity. And I think globally the US really wants to be able to compete against China. China is not slowing down at all." (Thu, Nov 5) $APLD CEO: Bank construction lending, project financing and bond markets remain available, although interest rates and credit spreads have risen "The big risk is delivering on time." "The demand picture is extremely robust." (Mon, Nov 2) $QCOM CEO: "It's not demand bound. It's a supply bound." "We're short on wafers, we're short on substrate, we're short on assembly. Everything is short because demand is very, very high." "I think what the market is reacting to is what is the speed of the compute build out." $META on political risk: "We did have a governor that won last night who did make data centers a big part of the platform. Say as soon as we get past the inauguration, let's meet because we don't want to lose this investment in our town. We don't want these jobs to go elsewhere." (Wed, Nov 4) Even politicians campaigning against data centers are negotiating. But Meta's president also emphasized that starting new US DCs will become more difficult. TLDR: -> Extremely bullish commentary from accelerator players, networking, and semi companies -> DC developers report strong pricing/demand, but increasingly emphasize financing, permitting and execution risks (more cautious) -> Politicians that previously campaigned against DCs are showing cooperation There's an important difference between demand disappearing and demand being delayed by the inability to build fast enough. Despite the severity of the selloff, I'm not seeing evidence of widespread AI demand destruction in commentary.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Toast $TOST, the restaurant software and payments company, reported its most profitable quarter yet on Tuesday, in the same 8-K that announced President and CFO Elena Gomez is stepping down. I bought $TOST as a long-term hold when I wrote it up on June 2 at $24/share. It closed Friday at $34.67, up 44.5% since then, and 3.4% above its $33.53 close before the report. Here’s what stood out in the Q3 report: → Locations: ~8,500 net adds, taking 2026 to ~25,000 through September (~7,000 in Q1 and ~9,500 in Q2), ahead of the 30,000/year pace my thesis requires. Total locations reached ~189,000, up 21%. → Recurring gross profit: Up 27% to $642M (non-GAAP subscription and fintech gross profit). $TOST’s total take rate (recurring gross profit as a share of the payment volume it processes) rose to 1.04% from 0.98% a year ago, per Gomez on the Q3 call. → Profit: GAAP operating income nearly doubled to $165M from $84M, and net income rose to $169M from $105M, or $0.29/diluted share. → Adjusted EBITDA: $240M, above the $210-220M guide and up from $176M a year ago. → Free cash flow: $181M, up from $153M, but only 75% of adjusted EBITDA, since $TOST chose to buy and hold more hardware inventory (due to rising memory prices). Gomez expects conversion to improve in Q4. → Buybacks: None in Q3, after $486M in H1 2026, with ~$100M left on the authorization. $TOST also raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guide for the third time in 2026, to $840-850M, and now expects recurring gross profit to grow 26% (up from 23-25%). Safe to say the core business is running ahead of my thesis.

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SIRI · long

Sirius Xm Holdings INC

SiriusXM, SIRI, combines a 32% EBITDA margin with 3.6x net leverage and a 16% free-cash-flow margin despite elevated capex.

SIRI $11B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

On Holdings: Maintaining Pace

On Holdings expects roughly CHF 3.5 billion in FY26 revenue as running shoes drive growth, while APAC exceeds 20% of sales and apparel…

ONON $13B
TSOH Investment Research

Thoughts on PayPal Buyout Offer

PayPal faces a $60.50-per-share buyout offer from Stripe and Advent, with a rejection or counteroffer above $80 viewed as more likely.

PYPL $49B
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