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Sunday, November 8, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

I actually thought $MRVL would buy $SIVE given smaller MC, but they went ahead and bought $LITE instead. Since it looked like Marvell was heading the Broadcom direction with vertical integration and needed lasers. As you said, $SIVE / $AAOI are much more strategically valuable now (both as independent suppliers + M&A prospects). Never crossed my mind Lumentum would get bought... but this sets an example for other players on what you can do now.
@ParadisLabs

Paradis on X

$MRVL to acquire $LITE in an all-stock transaction. - Implied enterprise value of $115 billion for Lumentum. - Lumentum stockholders will receive 4.5 shares of Marvell common stock for each share of Lumentum common stock. - This represents ~$1,132 per share of Lumentum common stock and a premium of approximately 23.9% based on each company’s price as of October 28, 2026. - Marvell stockholders will own ~67% of the combined company. Lumentum stockholders will own ~33%. - Matt Murphy to remain as CEO of the combined company. - Transaction expected to close in H1 2028, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Considering $LITE (that is sold out into 2029) is going to get swallowed up by $MRVL next week. I see $AAOI / $SIVE / $COHR are going to be a lot more strategically valuable in the West. Both for M&A prospects (which deserves a premium) so companies can vertically integrate like $AVGO. + players are going to be incentivized to qualify other light sources not owned by their competitor. $AAOI has a ton of optionality to supply CPO lasers in 2027 if they buy transceiver laser supply merchant, since they have the technology now. But 2028 they'll have capacity available AFAIK. AOI also had a lot of opportunities to sign LTAs but didn't, so there's a lot more uncertainty alongside the series of $600M ATMs. But we'll see how they're doing, especially with their 1.6T shipments... Laser chokepoint part of the optical supply chain is extraordinarily strong
@Mr_Neutral_Man

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

As with all over supply, time tends to take care of the problem. Im old enough to remember when SFH were generally thought if being in over supply forever Getting through this has taken wayyy longer than most folks imagined I’m waiting for $CPT to report. I kind of knew $MAA was gonna have tough/bad new/renewal mix I think it’s also part of their own fault where they push renewals too much

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