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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

Any rational person should lever themselves up until infinity on 0% convertible debt when rates are pushing 6%. You would be irrational to not do that. Especially if you are any good at capital allocation. How do you think $GME got $5bn of cash on the balance sheet and 10% of eBay. Oh and they made over $1bn in mark to market returns on eBay so far. And 6% on the remaining $5bn is $300 million of interest income per year. All for a zero percent convert that is still out of the money. One of the best capital allocation moves I’ve ever seen on Wall Street.
@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

When I do AI supply and demand modeling, everything ex-SPCX generally fits together and makes sense and is reasonably well funded. No individual large build looks too excessive because, for the most part, large projects are pre sold before they are built, or at least before they are completed… Anthropic can fund its ambitions for the next few years pretty easily with ARR and cash on hand. Even OpenAI is sitting on a mountain of cash and can fund the majority of compute with ARR. The hyperscale clouds are allocating between internal, lab, and enterprise use cases. This changed w/ $SPCX who is trying to build ~40% of 2026 capacity next year but without a secured buyer. Just a massive bet that industry capacity plans will undershoot realized demand by a wide margin. This is the most obvious way this becomes a glut. And everything else will mostly be contracted, with spcx holding most of the bag. They also have BY FAR the most financial upside if conditions remain tight, because of their chosen path to live and die by the spot market. But I find it puzzling that markets have really not challenged them more, particularly as broadly the risk of a cyclical peak comes into focus. When parties as risk seeking as OpenAI @sama have called them speculative (one of only 2-3 potential buyers of SPCX capacity…). Also SPCX two existing customers are abundantly clear that they view their contracts as short-term / bridge capacity and intend to churn off as new cheaper capacity comes online at ~1/5 of the price.

Investor Letters

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Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 23 clicks

Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks

Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks
TOYO · short

Toyo CO LTD

TOYO CO LTD is the target of a short thesis.

TOYO $229M
Value Investors Club

Google’s AI Return on Investment

Alphabet’s $132 billion AI capex produced an estimated 49% post-tax incremental ROIC once only in-service assets are counted, versus a…

GOOGL $3.5T
Bristlemoon Capital 3 clicks

American Express: Q2 2026 Results

American Express reiterated 2026 EPS growth guidance of 12.5% to 16.4% after Q2 volume and revenue growth, while operational and accounting…

AXP $218B
Librarian Capital's Research Library

Seer

Seer trades at $2.04 against $3.90 per share of net cash as activists press a board that rejected five buyout proposals and won reelection.

SEER $96M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 4 clicks

Reflections on quality investing

A 10-factor quality table ranks companies by moats, pricing power, balance sheets and growth, then applies it to 10 Buffett investments.

WFC $261B
Global Outperformers

DoorDash

DoorDash positions itself as infrastructure for local commerce.

DASH $86B
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks

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