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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 23 clicks

From X

@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$PDEX: Pro-Dex (PDEX) makes powered surgical handpieces (drivers and shavers) used mainly in orthopedic, thoracic (chest), and CMF (face/skull) surgeries. They design, build, and repair them primarily for medical device OEMs (one big customer drives most sales), plus some precision machining for aerospace/defense after a 2026 acquisition.⁠ New/upcoming products: Ongoing next-generation orthopedic handpiece for their largest customer (contract through 2028). Helios Pro: latest off-the-shelf CMF/cranial driver with their adaptive torque-limiting software (released for production). Articulating attachment (in development; targeting production spring/summer 2027). Monogram validation units (with Monogram Technologies/Zimmer Biomet; expected later in FY2027). Other roadmap items include a spinal driver and smart driver. Quick Pitch Market Cap $202m=Enterprise Value. Warren Buffett's Owner's Earnings of $13.45m resulting in a 15x multiple. W/C consistently a drag on cashflow. Feb 2026 acquired APM getting them into aerospace and defense. Repair revenue (probably high margin reoccurring) declining as largest customer shifts away from legacy devices. CEO been with co since 2006 and CEO since 2015. CFO been CFO since 2015
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$EMBC: Embecta (EMBC), spun out of Becton Dickinson in 2022, makes the pen needles and syringes people with diabetes use to inject insulin. Its U.S. pen needle business is shrinking from lost share and price cuts, and more patients are moving from daily insulin shots to weekly GLP-1s. To offset that, it is selling its needles inside the boxes of generic GLP-1 drugs, already launched in India, Canada and Brazil and targeted at $100M+ in revenue by 2033. It is also launching cheaper needles and syringes for new markets and buying into other drug-delivery products beyond insulin. Quick Pitch $350m Market Cap/$1.62B Enterprise Value. Less than 3x P/E. Warren Buffett Owners Earnings of $122m ex SBC. Cut dividend switched to $100m Buyback authorization that's being used. CEO/CFO/Director/CLO all bought August 12th
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$AIRT: Air T is a holding company for aviation businesses. Its companies fly cargo and regional feeder routes, sell and repair aircraft parts, and provide airport equipment, software, and aircraft leasing. Air T owns cargo/feeder flying, aircraft parts and repair, airport equipment/software, and leasing businesses. At $27.70, market cap is about $75m. Enterprise value is about $304m including debt, or ~$351m including leases, earnouts, and minority claims. FY25 cash flow less all capex was $7.8m: a tempting 9.6x market-cap multiple. But working capital contributed ~$22m of cash that year; adjusting for it makes that owners’ earnings proxy negative ~$14.6m. FY26 cash flow less capex was -$41.5m. FY26 net income included a $111m noncash bargain-purchase gain—not operating earnings. No open-market common-stock insider buys found; a July Form 144 tied to CEO Nick Swenson proposed selling 10k preferred securities, which doesn’t confirm a completed sale. Rex could drive growth, but integration, debt, inventory, thin margins, and fuel costs are risks. Air cargo demand is growing: IATA reported +4.4% in August.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$GTN ~$4.90. Joel Greenblatt always wanted to do an LBO, his way of doing one was finding very leveraged stocks. This is the ultimate public LBO. Gray owns local TV stations: the CBS/NBC/ABC/Fox channel in 117 US markets (~37% of homes), #1 rated in 78 of them. It gets paid three ways: local ads, fees cable and streaming companies pay to carry its channels, and a flood of political ads every other year. It is the most sensitive to political out of any broadcaster. Miller Value Partners’ latest 13F reported 7.24 million shares as of June 30, 2026, worth about $28.8 million at quarter end; the firm had increased the position by roughly 35% from the prior quarter. In recent Q they just pushed debt maturity to 2030 from 2028 ~$500M of equity on ~$6.3B of net debt + preferred. ~6.8x 2-yr avg EBITDA. Consensus FCF: $388M ‘26, $115M ‘27, $450M ‘28, or ~50% a year on average vs the market cap. The record 2026 political year ($630-640M) is going to debt: ~$1B of 10.5% notes refinanced or repurchased, another $175-200M paid down in Q4. Free options: FCC loosening ownership caps (more duopolies, M&A) and a future spectrum sale. $SPCX sensible buyer of part portfolio. Risks: core ads down mid-single digits ex-acquisitions, cord-cutting, and a former Gray VP sees retrans under “severe pressure” after 2028 (Alphasense). At 5.7x leverage the equity is a stub, so it cuts both ways. Miller Value Partners and Bill Miller Thesis: The GTN thesis is that the market was pricing Gray Television as a highly leveraged broadcaster in decline, while underestimating the cash-generating strength and value of its local stations and other assets. Miller Value Partners argued that: Gray’s local stations were often market leaders, giving the company a strong audience and an advantage in political advertising. Political ads, retransmission contract renewals, and growth in digital advertising could lift cash flow. The firm also saw potential in the Assembly production studio and, later, ATSC 3.0. That cash flow could pay down debt; if the market’s pessimism eased, the equity could be worth multiples of its then-current price. They acknowledged the debt and advertising-cycle risks. Their counterpoint was that near-term maturities were limited and that expected cash generation could support deleveraging. The particular forecasts changed over time: the 2023 letter estimated more than $2.5 billion of free cash flow over five years; the 2025 update estimated $2 billion-plus over five to six years. Those were the firm’s projections at the time, not realized results.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$BLBD ~$60 Blue Bird makes the yellow school buses. It’s one of only three big US makers (vs Thomas Built and IC Bus) and the leader in propane and electric buses. Districts buy them with local budgets and state/federal grants, and keep them ~15 years. ~$2.1B market cap, ~0 net debt. ~8.5x FY26 EBITDA ($247M guide), ~6% FCF yield. The bear case was EV subsidies running out. A VIC short at $57 in Aug ‘25 said FY27 EBITDA would fall to $92M. 15 months later: 776 EVs still in backlog, ~14% margins, price per bus +5.7%. 8x flat EBITDA = ~$57, so today’s price assumes zero growth. You get for free: A full year of Micro Bird, its small-bus arm ($16.5M EBITDA in its first quarter owned) Ford F-53/F-59 chassis deal (the frame RVs and delivery vans are built on), $1.4B added TAM, production starts 2028 Risks: legacy units -4.6% YTD, dealers say EV grant activity has “whittled down,” FY27 estimates getting cut. Q4 + FY27 guide ~Nov 23.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

“The next best thing to having your own private securities analyst.” — Peter Lynch on the Value Line Investment Survey It's Saturday, you know what that means. I went through Value Line Small and Mid-Cap because that is more fertile hunting ground evidenced by small cap stocks base rate performance. A Duff & Phelps analysis of CRSP portfolios reports a 20.19% average annual arithmetic return for the smallest decile over 1926–2017, versus 11.19% for the largest. My favorite stock was $GTN, high risk high reward. Joel Greenblatt always wanted to do an LBO because when they work the leverage magnifies your returns. His compromise? Finding highly leveraged public companies. $GTN is just that. 50% FCF yield, highly sensitive to political spend, debt maturities just extended from 2028 to 2030. FCC removing cap limits is free optionality. $SPCX logical buyer of parts of the portfolio. Bill Miller is bullish and has a position that he increased 35% last Q.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

I'm going to give a contrarian take on Neoclouds like $NBIS and say the theme looks compelling after the valuation crash. Since there's a reason why Elon's $SPCX is heavily focused on this market full of "guppies" that would die: He sees how attractive the economics are after selling compute to $GOOGL and Anthropic. And this is reflected by his actions not words, from SpaceX's recent $40B financing for GPUs procurement. $AMZN, $MSFT, and even $META also see how profitable the economics are and are accelerating their AI DC buildouts. I'd argue if a Neocloud has: - Close relationships with $NVDA + others for allocations - Existing contracted capacity + permitting - Well funded counterparties, such as Hyperscalers. - Attractive economics, such as financing their procurement correctly (not the way $CRWV has with high debt interest unless they refinance). Then I think they'll do just fine... However, the bigger worry is more toward newer players starting financing or the permitting process, since barrier to entry has now become extremely high. For financing, read through on $IREN earnings has shown public Neoclouds can adapt extremely well to tight markets: As seen with their 90% prepayments for GPU capex on a 5Y deal. Their older H100 GPUs recontracted at double their previous pricing and 12% higher contracted pricing also point against depreciation fears. And in the case DC buildouts slow from permitting delays... it heavily favors some over others. Rosenblatt's recent note for example stated they see little risk with $NBIS primary buildout that was in Missouri, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina. And there's probably less risk with developers in places like Australia. Markets have also show this infinite compute arbitrage can't go on forever, hence the reluctance to further finance capex, via things like ATMs. But ironically, tighter financing and hypothetical restrictive permitting would increase the competitive advantage of established neoclouds. And create a larger moat against newer DC developers.

Investor Letters

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Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks

Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

AMD Q3 FY26, Annotated

AMD's Q3 revenue rose 45% to $13.4 billion as data center reached $8.5 billion, 64% of sales, driven by EPYC and Instinct ramps.

AMD $660B
Chipstrat 2 clicks

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks
SPHR · long

Sphere Entertainment CO

Sphere Entertainment is shifting from construction and startup spending to a high-margin, cash-generative venue-operator model, with…

SPHR $4B
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

New Position (ONON): Game is On

On Holding (ONON) is gaining sportswear share, expanding store space and launching soccer with Kylian Mbappé as investors debate U.S.

ONON $13B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

When the Ads Come to the Data

Meta’s Muse could place ads inside its AI agent by letting a private VM select offers from advertisers without sharing user data with…

META $1.6T
MBI Deep Dives 7 clicks

Deep Dive: Intuit ($INTU)

Intuit’s $21.4 billion software franchise faces AI-driven pricing pressure in tax and accounting, even as QuickBooks and TurboTax retain…

INTU $92B
Rebound Capital 4 clicks

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