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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 22 clicks

From X

@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

Lets not resort to mud slinging when we can have a nice conversation. MSFT trades at a premium to other capex spenders partially bc it has a cleaner financial profile, can piggyback on OpenAI IP, but there are lots of other reasons too: - Perception of health of core business (which caused it to be cheaper than others 6mo ago, now w/ office accel its seen as better than GOOG maybe AMZN). These can change obv. - Predictability of incremental ROIC: MSFT is allocating incremental capex as 1) IaaS at predictable mid-teens-20s IRRs, 2) as tokens in Foundry at >30% IRRs, 3) in GTHB/Copilot inference at potentially even higher returns and with more long term franchise value, or 4) in research with longer term paybacks, but causing near-term drag on margins. Relative to META the R&D drag on EBIT is significantly lower and the other uses of compute have more predictable outcomes. When $META was primarily allocating capital to its core business, driving acceleration and extending its advantage vs other advertisers, it was rewarded w/ a premium mult. Now its multiple is depressed bc people dont know how to think about the ROIC or timeline for Muse, fresh off -$100B burned on FRL, so META has some Zuck yolo premium, whether you think that is warranted or not, it exists. AMZN capex is perhaps the most predictable but it doesnt have the really lucrative owned-token economic streams the others could have, or an AI business as moated as Muse could potentially be if META pulls it off. GOOG is crushing it in cloud, but more dependent on labs as % of incremental sales than MSFT AMZN. And its core biz is (rightly or wrongly) viewed as more susceptible to disruption at the moment. NVDA / AVGO / TSM are cheap but have various degrees of cycle and substitution risk. I'll readily acknowledge investors are short-term oriented and MSFT cleaner visible near-term profile has given it a safety premium vs other capex spenders. And there are many scenarios where those other capex spenders can achieve better IRRs from here if things go well for them. But that doesnt make MSFT overvalued. All stocks have tradeoffs. I think saying MSFT is over-earning bc they dont have to spend as much on R&D and therefore dont deserve a premium mult to other capex spenders is a bit reductive. Why reduce the world to 4 companies? Is MSFT cheap vs. 4 other companies with their own specific dynamics, idk, how about vs. the broader mkt? How about measuring its IRR through 2032 w/ EPS forecast and terminal mult and then just comparing the IRRs?
@convequity

Convequity on X

Larger AI chip packages are pushing manufacturers toward glass substrates. We regard LPKF Laser & Electronics ($LPKFF) as one of very few suppliers that can make the tiny, closely spaced holes through the glass reliably and in volume. 1. The silicon chips and the organic (resin-based) substrate beneath them expand by different amounts as the package heats and cools. A larger package makes that mismatch harder to manage, raising the risk of warping and damaged connections. Glass expands more like silicon. 2. $NVDA is requiring its Taiwanese and Korean suppliers to deliver glass substrates by 2028. 3. China's BOE is reportedly meeting with Samsung on a glass substrate partnership. 4. Producing these holes in volume is difficult. The holes, called through-glass vias, must be made without cracking the glass and then filled with copper. Our view is that LPKF's process, a laser pulse followed by a chemical etch, is built for that hole-making step. We are watching for its customers to move from development into production.

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Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks

Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

AMD Q3 FY26, Annotated

AMD's Q3 revenue rose 45% to $13.4 billion as data center reached $8.5 billion, 64% of sales, driven by EPYC and Instinct ramps.

AMD $660B
Chipstrat 1 click

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks

ARM Q2 FY3/27 Earnings Review

Arm reported Q2 revenue of $1.443 billion, up 27%, as licensing rose 50% while royalties grew 8%; Q3 guidance calls for $1.54 billion.

ARM $181B
Cestrian Capital Research

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