Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Saturday, November 7, 2026

Back to the front page

From X

@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

I'm going to give a contrarian take on Neoclouds like $NBIS and say the theme looks compelling after the valuation crash. Since there's a reason why Elon's $SPCX is heavily focused on this market full of "guppies" that would die: He sees how attractive the economics are after selling compute to $GOOGL and Anthropic. And this is reflected by his actions not words, from SpaceX's recent $40B financing for GPUs procurement. $AMZN, $MSFT, and even $META also see how profitable the economics are and are accelerating their AI DC buildouts. I'd argue if a Neocloud has: - Close relationships with $NVDA + others for allocations - Existing contracted capacity + permitting - Well funded counterparties, such as Hyperscalers. - Attractive economics, such as financing their procurement correctly (not the way $CRWV has with high debt interest unless they refinance). Then I think they'll do just fine... However, the bigger worry is more toward newer players starting financing or the permitting process, since barrier to entry has now become extremely high. For financing, read through on $IREN earnings has shown public Neoclouds can adapt extremely well to tight markets: As seen with their 90% prepayments for GPU capex on a 5Y deal. Their older H100 GPUs recontracted at double their previous pricing and 12% higher contracted pricing also point against depreciation fears. And in the case DC buildouts slow from permitting delays... it heavily favors some over others. Rosenblatt's recent note for example stated they see little risk with $NBIS primary buildout that was in Missouri, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina. And there's probably less risk with developers in places like Australia. Markets have also show this infinite compute arbitrage can't go on forever, hence the reluctance to further finance capex, via things like ATMs. But ironically, tighter financing and hypothetical restrictive permitting would increase the competitive advantage of established neoclouds. And create a larger moat against newer DC developers.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

I found the technical discussion helpful, but investor messaging to be way too conservative. If you look at how $NVDA CEO describes CPO, Jensen states scale up is increasing optical volumes by 15x. $LITE and $COHR are quantifying that by describing $5-$20B agreements spanning 3-5 years out. Having this question, and not talking about Ayar, O-Net, Poet, or ELS partnerships. Then redirecting the question to near term pluggables seems off. The vision also needs work, “communications and sensing” semi company is very unexciting. It’s technically true, but there’s no vision being communicated on being the next $40B optical giant or what Sivers is going to be in the next 5 years that would attract long term holders. The core valuation Sivers gets is from optical opportunities, I also personally disagree that it’s helpful to loop back to former cellular relationships when talking about future $GFS volumes I disagree when you portray the company as “small” when Sivers 100m CW DFB capacity is coming online, alongside large foundry partners. Which is a material % of the world’s annual laser capacity. Investors want to hear about future economic opportunities and how you fill the gap with more qualifications during a bottleneck. Sivers has a tremendous opportunity for CPO/NPO/Pluggables but I’m afraid it’s not being communicated properly. It’s understandable here since EETimes is more technical oriented, but I hope this messaging gets communicated better in the next earnings call.

Investor Letters

All letters

Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks
ADBE · long

Adobe INC

Adobe's dual network effects and platform entrenchment make AI fears a buying opportunity for the software compounder.

ADBE $93B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Adobe Inc.

Adobe’s 11x P/E reflects AI disruption fears, but its creative standards, product bundling and Firefly monetisation support the case for…

ADBE $93B
Global Outperformers

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 74 of 277

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

359 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.