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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 23 clicks

From X

@orrdavid

David Orr on X

Another thing: This post is *not* meant to call a short term top. I sometimes want to. Maybe even I have hinted that's what I think. But that's wrong. The best way to think is, "I don't know when the top will be, maybe $SOXX really does take another 100% leg up first, who knows, why not." But that next big move up or down seems like a pure guess to me. So at least for making a binary bet - a bet on $SOXX beta - it's a pure casino. There probably is some brilliant way to structure this trade, though. You're long compute and you're short the things that more intelligence kills - like really kills, not that benefits from AI letting them cut 90% of their staff. For my part, there are just way too many eyes on the trade for me to be all that interested, though. Because if too many smart people figure out how to solve that fundamentally guess what ... the long/short could easily blow up in a month, just before the collapse, since the market won't often give such large crowds a free lunch pair trade. I say screw all of that, better to just focus on real investments, in the real world, that likely benefit from AI or at least don't get hurt. That is not a gamble today, and lots of those stocks are just straight up cheap. The only downside is that the AI trade will probably keep the stocks trading weak ... but this side is NOT hard to do broad, uncrowded pair trades on, so who cares.
@orrdavid

David Orr on X

Look at this last chart carefully. April implied that the next few months would get more expensive, and they did. July implied that the next couple of months would get more expensive, and it was wrong. And AI traded sideways. September again implied that October would go up, and October indeed went up a lot! And $SOXX tried to rally hard,m and then failed hard, even though October's curve suggests prices are still going up over the next month or two? It's hard to say exactly. What I am confident amount: Once the more modern compute starts going down rather than up, the AI trade will have already imploded many months beforehand.

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GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks
AAP · long

Advance Auto Parts INC

Advance Auto Parts, AAP, is presented as a long idea following prior write-ups at $48.81 per share in January 2025.

AAP $2.9B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

MDA $4.2B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

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