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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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@ParadisLabs

Paradis on X

$LITE shareholders should be annoyed... The 23.9% premium in the $MRVL deal is real on paper, but in dollars it's gone. 1. 4.5 $MRVL per $LITE = $1,132/share on 28 Oct = 23.9% above Lumentum's undisturbed $914. This is the 23.9% premium reported today. 2. Marvell has since fallen ~22% to $196.40 (Friday close). So 4.5 shares = ~$884 = 3.3% below Lumentum’s undisturbed price of $914. 3. The deal's $102.5B equity value is now ~$80B. 4. Lumentum fell ~8% in the same selloff to the ~$840s. 5. So even vs where Lumentum actually trades, the premium has shrunk from 23.9% to ~5%. I think Marvell needs to get back above ~$203 for Lumentum shareholders to see any premiums over the undisturbed price. It's essentially a premium paid in a currency (stock) that’s fallen 22%. Welcome any pushback on my napkin math calcs. By no means a comprehensive model.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Following the Lumentum / Marvell deal: My opinion is that independent Western laser players, like $AAOI, $COHR, and $SIVE became a lot more strategically valuable. $MTSI and $SMTC should get some attention too as emerging laser players in 2027. If I had to guess: 1. Companies competing against Marvell, or not in the $NVDA ecosystem bandwagon, such as $AMD, are likely going to rethink their relationship with $LITE. If getting bottlenecked by Nvidia capacity agreements wasn't enough... Incentives around qualifying + bringing up other laser players, seems very necessary now. Since you generally don't want competitors like Marvell to have influence or visibility over your roadmaps, IP, capacity, pricing, etc. even if there is a "firewall". 2. $MRVL acquiring Lumentum opened pandoras box in a way of acquiring a critical chokepoint all your competitors + buyers use. $LITE was used by your major hyperscalers and across AI supply chains. Now, your leaders might wonder if weaponizing capacity agreements might not be as effective.... If someone else can just buy the entire company. There's only a few major public merchant Western players out there, and I'm also sure many others will want to follow the Marvell / Broadcom route via vertical integration, given I think $MRVL saves around $1B+ in costs/year. So M&A premiums likely went up. $SMTC was actively looking to buy laser capacity via M&A so I'm sure they're looking at $SIVE given their 100M CW DFB laser expansion + tiny MC. $JBL also probably wants to vertically integrate down the road too so $SIVE is also an acquisition target for their 1.6T program. $AMD was looking for ELSFP + CW capacity given Nvidia bottlenecks, so I'm sure they've looked at $AAOI. can go on and on about other ASIC players (like in Taiwan) that likely are looking at vertical integration too. Since multiple players use a small subset of laser suppliers, if competitors just go ahead and buys them... There's a lot pressure to M&A for their own supply chain defensibility. TLDR: Independent laser suppliers should capture a material strategic revaluation since $MRVL + $LITE, sets a new precedent + implications. We'll see what happens.

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