Post Q3 EVC Update
EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.
Friday, November 6, 2026
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Deep Sail Capital on X
Sobering one: of 31 distinct names, only 2 have actually reached my Realistic Valuation target. $EVTL and $RR. Median downside capture on the Sept '25 list: 73% of the decline I forecast. On the 2026 lists: 22-41%. Direction right. Magnitude still pending. This means there is still lots of meat on the bone in many of these names.
Deep Sail Capital on X
What I'm carrying into the next list: → Short arithmetic, not narratives → Overleveraged and Industry Bubble earn their slot → Potential Fraud has to clear a much higher bar → Stop re-shorting $RUM Full table and methodology at Shorts & Squeeze Corner.
Deep Sail Capital on X
Across all 110 position-instances: Average short return: +25.7%Median: +23.1%Hit rate: 81% — 89 of 110 names fell Best call, and it wasn't close: $EVTL Vertical Aerospace $5.00 → $0.58 Top performer on all five lists. The Sept '25 entry is +88%. Even the July '26 entry is +66%. The company flagged going-concern risk in a filing this month.
Deep Sail Capital on X
The rest of the Sept '25 podium — a full year of holding: $EVTL +88% $SMR +77% $LVWR +76% $OKLO +73% $BTQ +73% $SOUN +69% $RGTI +67% 19 of the 20 names on that list fell. Nineteen.
Deep Sail Capital on X
Biggest miss was $RUM. $RUM was my worst pick on four of five lists. Average: -23%. $PLTR: -13% average across four lists. Right on the multiple, wrong on the stock, repeatedly. $CVNA: -4% average — and I had it tagged Potential Fraud.
SG on X
@BertrandPirel to what do you attribute the substantial availability (1.85m shares) and low borrow cost (3.25%) for $GPRO at IBKR?
BDC on X
Astute observation here. $STLN could not be better situated for the current environment, imo.
Investor Letters
All letters- Spheria — Global Smaller Companies Fund month ended 31 October 2026 SFM $4.8BSN $31B
- Forager Funds Management October 2026 OFX $70MPLT $96M
- Rathbones October 2026 SBGSF $143BSIEGY $237B
- FCL Capital October 2026 ANPDF $28BBKNG $122B
- Protean Funds October 2026 AAK $4.6BLFABF $13B
- Bison Interests third quarter 2026 OILSF $949M
- Invesco — Discovery Fund Q3 2026 HHSE $12MMOD $5.2B
- Akre Capital Management, LLC Third Quarter 2026 BN $96BCNSWF $53B
Entravision Q3 Update
Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…
(Idea) Transocean - Near-Term Results Obscure A Brighter Future
Transocean’s 25.6% selloff reflects oil-market shorting and weak Q3 headlines, while debt reduction after the Valaris acquisition could…
Axon 3Q26 Business Update
Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.
Axon 3Q26 Update: Revenue Breaks Below 30%, Runway Reaffirmed
Axon’s 3Q26 revenue growth fell to 28% after delayed federal Dedrone contracts, while software grew 43% and its $1.2 billion Skydio…
CareCloud (CCLD): A Second Sales Rep Talks. More Structure. Didn’t have a leader of sales for 18 months. That has changed. Organic growth through Medsphere?
CareCloud rebuilt its sales organization under Christopher Langehaug after 18 months without a sales leader, with a second sales rep…
Datadog (NASDAQ: DDOG) Stock Rating: Stop After Q3 FY12/26 Earnings
Datadog beat Q3 revenue guidance by $52 million, but guided Q4 revenue flat as its largest AI-native customer reduced usage after renewing.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR): Q3 2026 Earnings
Alpha Metallurgical posted a third consecutive quarterly loss as High Vol A coal margins fell to $14 a ton, while director Kenneth Courtis…
A clear solution to the “problem”
Shift4’s Q3 met guidance, but organic growth is decelerating, management credibility is weakening and leverage reduction remains too slow.
GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK
Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…
Moderna (MRNA) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review
Moderna reported $1.313bn in Q3 revenue, up 29%, and $130m in operating income versus a $260m loss, while operating cash flow was negative…
Cloudflare (NET) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review
Cloudflare’s Q3 revenue rose 39% to $782.5 million, its fastest growth in nearly four years, while a $67.9 million GAAP operating loss and…
Airbnb 3Q’26: Back in Growth Mode, but Agents Still Worry Me
Airbnb’s 3Q’26 revenue grew 16% ex-FX as bookings accelerated, but consumer travel agents remain a long-term competitive threat.
Dynatrace (NYSE: DT) Stock Rating: Do Nothing After Q2 FY3/27 Earnings (No Paywall)
Dynatrace reported 17% Q2 revenue growth but flat new ARR and lower profit and free-cash-flow guidance, following its $816 million Arize…
Coherent: Selling Volume While Lumentum Sells Scarcity
Coherent sells constrained InP capacity through volume-priced modules, while a $20 billion PhotonLink agreement marks its first…
ARM Q2 FY3/27 Earnings Review
Arm reported Q2 revenue of $1.443 billion, up 27%, as licensing rose 50% while royalties grew 8%; Q3 guidance calls for $1.54 billion.
CareCloud (CCLD): Q3 2026 Call Notes and Thesis. My biggest position, I’m bullish. To me it’s a multibagger
CareCloud’s Q3 revenue rose 9% through acquisitions but fell 8% pro forma; the RCM consolidator targets 25–30% margins by shifting acquired…
Reddit Stock $RDDT : The Human Internet Just Got 29% Cheaper
Reddit fell 29% after warning that Google search traffic was declining, despite Q3 revenue rising 53%; the bull case rests on communities,…
Rocket Lab: Less Euphoria, Still Too Much Perfection Priced In Ahead Of Q3
Rocket Lab faces Neutron delays, Iridium acquisition dilution and cash burn despite expected 66% Q3 revenue growth, leaving RKLB priced for…
Bernard Zambonin 1 click
[scuttleslops] INTC, AMD, Anthropic, BKNG, NEE, PLTR
Intel’s data-center revenue rose 80% to $7.3 billion as AI-agent workloads lift server CPU demand, but Intel 3 wafers and advanced…
EQT: Will Berkshire Hathaway Buy Them After The Range Resources Acquisition?
EQT becomes the largest U.S. natural-gas producer after acquiring Range Resources, with takeover speculation centered on Berkshire Hathaway…
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Sectors
Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.
