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Friday, November 6, 2026

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Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 23 clicks

From X

@BrokenMoats 2 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Secular theme of increasing competition in the coffee space, no issue taking a position against SBUX which still carries a premium valuation largely on that premise. My flip side to that, is why also be long Dutch $BROS? Trades worked against you for almost the same reasons - intensifying competition from direct copy cat 7 Brew. But there are many regional players that are aggressively scaling - Summermoon, Foxtail, Lala land, Merrit, etc and those are the ones just geographically close to me but it's a countrywide phenomenon. Turns out yes coffee is habitual and generates good cash returns, but barriers to entry are low. The bidding war for the Salads real estate was insane, and shows how deep pocketed 7 Brew is in their expansion, and being PE backed and not public means they might be less disciplined...... So why Bros? There might still be potential there, the model is efficient and a cult service culture, but even at current levels I find the valuation difficult to digest not to mention overhangs from GLP1s, affordability/gas prices
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I tracked the production targets Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) has set for its AI decryptor builder since 2023, and it missed all four! Nubeva’s agent copies the encryption keys ransomware generates during an attack, but a victim can’t use the keys until someone writes a decryptor (a program that reverses the encryption) for the strain behind the attack. Building every decryptor by hand is the capacity issue behind the 2023 exit of Kroll, Nubeva’s biggest customer. Nubeva’s FY2025 and FY2026 MD&As frame the same issue as cost, saying the company’s “current support structure carries costs that are not sustainable at scale.” Nubeva’s fix is to have AI write the decryptors instead. It announced a patent application for an AI decryptor builder in August 2023 and has pitched the builder ever since. Per the FY2026 MD&A, “a private, cryptographically trained AI engine” uses the captured keys to analyze encrypted samples, identifies the decryption method, and writes “the decryptor software, test kits, and documentation.” The goal is “a custom decryptor within an hour” of a customer getting hit by a new strain. Both MD&As also lay out two outcomes: → If automation works: Nubeva “will be positioned to re-expand its commercial footprint” through end users, managed security providers, incident-response firms, security integrations, and cyber insurers. → If automation falls short: Nubeva “will continue to advance and complete its IP portfolio, positioning the Company for strategic partnerships or potential M&A transactions.” Three years on, the AI decryptor builder still isn’t in production. The August 2023 release expected production “later this year,” the FY2024 and FY2025 MD&As said “later this year” again, and the December 2025 interim MD&A said “later this fiscal year.” Then the FY2026 MD&A, filed August 28, 2026, quietly dropped the date altogether. After four missed targets, dropping the date suggests Nubeva’s own builder isn’t close. CEO Randy Chou hinted at the delay in October 2025, saying Nubeva was “still waiting for an automated way to scale support,” which he said was true of “everybody else in the industry.” But the wait may finally be ending. On September 3, 2026 (six days after dropping the date), Nubeva said it had been approved for access to “a frontier artificial intelligence model made available to vetted organizations for authorized defensive cybersecurity work.” Nubeva doesn’t name the model’s provider, but the release came out the same day OpenAI committed $1B of subsidized access to its Daybreak cyber models. If the model is Daybreak, the access isn’t particularly rare. OpenAI said on September 3 that “thousands of defenders across 2,000 approved organizations and workspaces already use Daybreak.” Either way, decryption is where a frontier model could matter most, since writing a decryptor for an unfamiliar strain is the step Nubeva’s engineers still do by hand.

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Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks

Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

ARM Q2 FY3/27 Earnings Review

Arm reported Q2 revenue of $1.443 billion, up 27%, as licensing rose 50% while royalties grew 8%; Q3 guidance calls for $1.54 billion.

ARM $181B
Cestrian Capital Research

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