The Midterms Have Changed the AI Narrative: S&P Down 4.4%, Nasdaq Down 5.5% | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman links a Democratic midterm sweep and CoreWeave concerns to an AI narrative shift as the S&P 500 fell 4.4% and Nasdaq 5.5%.
Steve Eisman links a Democratic midterm sweep and CoreWeave concerns to an AI narrative shift as the S&P 500 fell 4.4% and Nasdaq 5.5%.
$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.
Idea Brunch with @Derek_K_Brown of Dardanelles Capital Tickers mentioned include $FLUT and $ELF
$CVGW In MRQ benefited from temp avocado price spike and 1-time F/X add-back. Volumes have been declining LDD for the last 3Qs ($CMG shifting suppliers). DOJ investigation continues. Prices & earnings reverting lower. Commodity distributor trading at 30x P/E is not sustainable.
$NX Just acquired peer Tyman. >3x leverage, never done a deal before, commodity business, customers all cutting numbers w deteriorating resi remodel activity ($AMWD yesterday, $MBC, $OC, $JELD). Stock is trading at close to 14x EPS. Seen this movie before. Earnings next week.
My team has the stones to tell me "the deck we prepared on $PLNT is the best work we've EVER done." I rarely hear that degree of confidence from anyone. You be the judge...presentation TOMORROW, 8/16. Deets below.
The work we're doing on $PLNT is next-level -- similar to what we did on $FND, but with a VERY different conclusion. Analyzing each store from a property developers perspective... Black Book on Friday...
Is anybody looking at $REAL NOLs? I bet $EBAY is. EBAY has failed in luxury authentication. It NEEDS REAL. They could use $2/share in realized NOLs with the stock trading at $3. Maybe they buy this when it's a $10 stock, but at $3 it's a slam dunk.
Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.
Axon’s 3Q26 revenue growth fell to 28% after delayed federal Dedrone contracts, while software grew 43% and its $1.2 billion Skydio…
Datadog beat Q3 revenue guidance by $52 million, but guided Q4 revenue flat as its largest AI-native customer reduced usage after renewing.
Alpha Metallurgical posted a third consecutive quarterly loss as High Vol A coal margins fell to $14 a ton, while director Kenneth Courtis…
Shift4’s Q3 met guidance, but organic growth is decelerating, management credibility is weakening and leverage reduction remains too slow.
Moderna reported $1.313bn in Q3 revenue, up 29%, and $130m in operating income versus a $260m loss, while operating cash flow was negative…
Vicor earns a Strong Buy after record Q3 results and AI gains, while QXO falls to Hold over capital structure and execution risk.
Cloudflare’s Q3 revenue rose 39% to $782.5 million, its fastest growth in nearly four years, while a $67.9 million GAAP operating loss and…
Airbnb’s 3Q’26 revenue grew 16% ex-FX as bookings accelerated, but consumer travel agents remain a long-term competitive threat.
Reddit fell 29% after warning that Google search traffic was declining, despite Q3 revenue rising 53%; the bull case rests on communities,…
Dynatrace reported 17% Q2 revenue growth but flat new ARR and lower profit and free-cash-flow guidance, following its $816 million Arize…
Coherent sells constrained InP capacity through volume-priced modules, while a $20 billion PhotonLink agreement marks its first…
Arm reported Q2 revenue of $1.443 billion, up 27%, as licensing rose 50% while royalties grew 8%; Q3 guidance calls for $1.54 billion.
Rocket Lab faces Neutron delays, Iridium acquisition dilution and cash burn despite expected 66% Q3 revenue growth, leaving RKLB priced for…
Intel’s data-center revenue rose 80% to $7.3 billion as AI-agent workloads lift server CPU demand, but Intel 3 wafers and advanced…
EQT becomes the largest U.S. natural-gas producer after acquiring Range Resources, with takeover speculation centered on Berkshire Hathaway…
Marvell’s Lumentum acquisition targets optical networking demand as AI data centers shift from copper to lasers, expanding its hyperscaler…
AppLovin's 3Q26 revenue rose 55% year over year and margins reached 78.2%, driven by AXON model gains, while publisher bidding pressure…
Interactive Brokers faces earnings pressure from an AI-driven market downturn and lower rates, while customer growth and product expansion…
AAP · long Advance Auto Parts, AAP, is presented as a long idea following prior write-ups at $48.81 per share in January 2025.
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