The Midterms Have Changed the AI Narrative: S&P Down 4.4%, Nasdaq Down 5.5% | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman links a Democratic midterm sweep and CoreWeave concerns to an AI narrative shift as the S&P 500 fell 4.4% and Nasdaq 5.5%.
Steve Eisman links a Democratic midterm sweep and CoreWeave concerns to an AI narrative shift as the S&P 500 fell 4.4% and Nasdaq 5.5%.
$AVO $CVGW 1) Retailers $CMG, etc sourcing elsewhere given MX tariff risk. 2) Avocado price spike during last year’s peak harvest season enabled distributors to realize outsized margins. 1-time benefit has reversed, significant earnings misses ahead for these commodity businesses
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.
The industrial logic for the $UNF and $CTAS merger captured in one picture. Both have been going to the Chipotle (or same strip center) near our office in Houston on the same days at the same time (the store was closed at the time this pic was taken). https://t.co/zxTIFVgn1s
Tough end of the year in merger arb land $BATL, $RVNC, $X, $ACI, $CPRI
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
We went Long $BIRK this past weekend. The call was timed ahead of this print, which we thought would be well ahead. But the call is much bigger than beating the qtr. No reason why this won't compound to a double+ over TAIL duration.
Where are all the $RH haters/trolls this morning? <crickets> This stock could be $600 in short order, and it will likely STILL be a long!
Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.
Axon’s 3Q26 revenue growth fell to 28% after delayed federal Dedrone contracts, while software grew 43% and its $1.2 billion Skydio…
Datadog beat Q3 revenue guidance by $52 million, but guided Q4 revenue flat as its largest AI-native customer reduced usage after renewing.
Alpha Metallurgical posted a third consecutive quarterly loss as High Vol A coal margins fell to $14 a ton, while director Kenneth Courtis…
Shift4’s Q3 met guidance, but organic growth is decelerating, management credibility is weakening and leverage reduction remains too slow.
Vicor earns a Strong Buy after record Q3 results and AI gains, while QXO falls to Hold over capital structure and execution risk.
Cloudflare’s Q3 revenue rose 39% to $782.5 million, its fastest growth in nearly four years, while a $67.9 million GAAP operating loss and…
Dynatrace reported 17% Q2 revenue growth but flat new ARR and lower profit and free-cash-flow guidance, following its $816 million Arize…
Reddit fell 29% after warning that Google search traffic was declining, despite Q3 revenue rising 53%; the bull case rests on communities,…
Rocket Lab faces Neutron delays, Iridium acquisition dilution and cash burn despite expected 66% Q3 revenue growth, leaving RKLB priced for…
Marvell’s Lumentum acquisition targets optical networking demand as AI data centers shift from copper to lasers, expanding its hyperscaler…
Blue Owl Capital's NAV rose to $14.32 as buybacks and portfolio marks improved, while OBDC trades at a 25% discount despite a 0.33%…
AAP · long Advance Auto Parts, AAP, is presented as a long idea following prior write-ups at $48.81 per share in January 2025.
TransMedics reported record Q3 2026 revenue exceeding $200 million, driven by its organ transplant technology business.
JFrog jumped 35% to $100.44 after another beat-and-raise quarter, joining the TL20 Special Situations group.
Uber Delivery generated an estimated $0.66 EBITDA after SBC per order in 3Q26, versus DoorDash's $0.80, while autonomous vehicles shape…
MercadoLibre’s logistics expansion cut margins by 60 basis points, while Mercado Pago grew credit 62% with 7% NPLs.
Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…
Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…
AutoNation, Lear, NexPoint, AudioCodes and Xponential Fitness lead a 52-situation screen spanning buybacks, insider purchases, M&A and…
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