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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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Fajasy on X

Crean Hill cost Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU) US$11.3M in November 2022, and a 2024 preliminary study put the mine’s after-tax NPV at US$137.0M. If R2, the high-grade zone Magna found at its Levack mine, is Magna’s copper and precious metals upside, Crean Hill is its biggest nickel exposure. Crean Hill’s 2024 PEA (preliminary economic assessment) outlined a 13-year, 2,200 tonnes/day underground mine that sells its ore to a third-party mill: → Resource: 18.4Mt indicated at 1.01% nickel, 0.87% copper, and 2.47g/t platinum, palladium, and gold. → Capital: US$34.2M for an advanced exploration phase (early underground work and bulk mining before full production) that earns US$11.6M of revenue, then US$19.6M before commercial production. → Economics: After-tax NPV (at an 8% discount rate) of US$137.0M and a 129% IRR, at $8.50/lb nickel, $4.00/lb copper, $900/oz platinum, $1,000/oz palladium, and $2,150/oz gold. Weighting each metal’s price change by its share of PEA revenue, I estimate Crean Hill’s revenue would be ~32% higher at Q2 2026 prices, even though nickel, 51% of PEA revenue, is the only metal below its PEA price. CEO Jason Jessup says the pre-feasibility study (PFS), due in the first half of October, will use “more realistic consensus metal prices for 2026” and update the capital costs. He expects the PFS to come in “generally in line” with the PEA, with “some additional costs.” Jessup also said in July that Crean Hill’s capital is “not going to be anywhere near $140 million.” Unlike McCreedy West, Magna’s producing mine, Crean Hill carries no precious metals stream. To fund the restarts, Magna now has ~US$124M of cash, most of it from Alpayana, a Peruvian mining group that bought 19.9% of the company in August.
@ChrisCamillo 3 clicks

Chris Camillo on X

One of the most important disciplines in investing is constantly updating the best argument against your own position. Not dismissing it. Not looking for reasons it’s wrong. Actually understanding it well enough to decide how much conviction your own thesis deserves. $AMZN has badly lagged the market and many other AI names recently, and I think the counter thesis has evolved. The biggest new threat is agentic commerce. Meta’s Muse and other AI agents could increasingly control product discovery and purchasing, potentially weakening Amazon’s retail and advertising moat. That’s real. But I think it plays out slowly, Amazon will adapt through its own agents, including Project Moonraker, or partnerships that are seeking access into and monetization from the world’s largest ecommerce platform, and in an agent-first world the upside to AWS, Trainium, Graviton and Amazon’s broader AI infrastructure business could ultimately more than offset the advertising dollars at risk. Then there’s Anthropic. A recent barrage of negative headlines around slowing growth and Meta/Microsoft reducing Claude usage has spilled over into $AMZN sentiment. Again, worth taking seriously. But much of that narrative looks incomplete. Anthropic’s revenue growth remains extraordinary, its IPO appears very much alive, and its massive long term commitment to AWS remains intact. We are still early and one can make a strong argument that AWS has more to gain from an open source first AI world than it would lose from Anthropic’s and OAI’s relative weakness, if it even plays out that way. And now sharply higher diesel prices create another near term headwind to Amazon’s shipping margins. That’s real too. But either fuel prices normalize or as with past cost inflation Amazon eventually passes much of the higher cost through while continuing to drive down fulfillment costs. I don’t need the counter thesis to be wrong to own $AMZN. I just need the bull thesis to be more right.

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Trading Post November 5, 2026

MercadoLibre’s logistics expansion cut margins by 60 basis points, while Mercado Pago grew credit 62% with 7% NPLs.

MELI $77B
Cassandra Unchained 2 clicks

Intel: The CPU Comeback, Discounted

Intel's Q3 2026 results were hit by memory costs and an Israel shutdown, but enterprise AI inference could lift CPU demand as server…

INTC $287B
Monte Independent Investment Research 2 clicks

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #13: Nov 5, 2026

Florida marinas are 92% full as boat counts rise and permits constrain new supply, creating pricing power for existing operators such as…

SUI $14B
Trade Ideas Flow 6 clicks

eToro: Expanding Beyond Crypto

EToro trades at 2.89x EV/FCF with $304 million in trailing free cash flow, expanding from crypto into equities, commodities, currencies and…

ETOR $1.9B
Max Arnoldi 5 clicks
SILC · long

Silicom LTD

Silicom (SILC) is pitched as inexpensive on its existing hardware business, with upside framed as a cheap call option.

SILC $183M
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

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