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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

The 13% puke today is the market questioning whether $CVI is using peak-cycle earnings to justify a transformative acquisition (nearly doubling nameplate capacity). The $MPC assets may be attractive, but shareholders are absorbing dilution, additional debt, and the risk that refining margins normalize before the company can meaningfully delever… $CVI was always sub-scale, so there’s a legitimate strategic rationale here. The irony is that the best time to buy cyclical assets is usually when you can least afford to finance them…
@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

U.S. inflation is still sticky, and it’s not only the government’s numbers saying so. Inflation shows up in both the government’s price indexes and the price of gold: → Growth × Policy: Core PCE inflation, the PCE price index minus food and energy, rose to 3.1% in September from 3.0% in August, 1.1% above the Fed’s 2% target. CPI inflation rose to 3.7% from 3.4%. I focus on core PCE because the Fed sets its 2% target on the PCE index, and leaving out food and energy, whose prices swing the most, provides a better read on where inflation is headed. → Charles Gave’s Four Quadrants (from Gavekal): At the end of October, an ounce of gold bought 42.5 shares of $IEF (a 7-10 year Treasury ETF) vs. a 7-year average of 26.3. That’s down from 47 at the end of September, since gold fell 6.9% in October while $IEF rose 3.1%. Gave reads gold beating bonds as the currency losing value, and gold has been beating bonds since March 2020. Gave’s framework still places the U.S. in an inflationary boom, where the U.S. has been since November 2023, apart from four weeks in March and April 2026. That’s the quadrant where he favors gold, commodities, real estate, value stocks, emerging markets and cyclicals with high fixed costs, and avoids long-duration bonds. These assets either rise in price with inflation or earn more when the economy runs hot, while long-duration bonds pay a fixed amount that inflation eats away. High Treasury yields don’t change that call, since Gave’s gold/IEF ratio divides the gold price by $IEF’s total return (interest included), and the ratio is still 61% above its 7-year average even after October.
@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

GameStop $GME is doing a Magic the Gathering meet up at stores across the board. Wall Street simply does not understand the significance of this as they don't follow nerdass card market and they definitely don't follow Hasbro $HAS and see how much their Magic the Gathering revenues are up. And they most certainly don't understand that GameStop is a card shop now because Wall Street suits are too busy going to the Peter Luger Steak house and ordering overpriced hunks of meat and a nice side of mashed potatoes while their big fat bellies fall over their legs and wives secretly hate them because they are too busy buried in their financial models and not their wives bosoms.

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Trading Post November 5, 2026

MercadoLibre’s logistics expansion cut margins by 60 basis points, while Mercado Pago grew credit 62% with 7% NPLs.

MELI $77B
Cassandra Unchained 2 clicks

Intel: The CPU Comeback, Discounted

Intel's Q3 2026 results were hit by memory costs and an Israel shutdown, but enterprise AI inference could lift CPU demand as server…

INTC $287B
Monte Independent Investment Research 2 clicks

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #13: Nov 5, 2026

Florida marinas are 92% full as boat counts rise and permits constrain new supply, creating pricing power for existing operators such as…

SUI $14B
Trade Ideas Flow 6 clicks

eToro: Expanding Beyond Crypto

EToro trades at 2.89x EV/FCF with $304 million in trailing free cash flow, expanding from crypto into equities, commodities, currencies and…

ETOR $1.9B
Max Arnoldi 5 clicks
SILC · long

Silicom LTD

Silicom (SILC) is pitched as inexpensive on its existing hardware business, with upside framed as a cheap call option.

SILC $183M
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

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