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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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AppLovin 3Q26 Business Update: No Notes

AppLovin’s Q3 revenue rose 55% year over year as AXON model gains expanded margins, while ad take-rate compression remains the key competitive risk.

APP $118B
Speedwell Research 3 clicks

From X

@ParadisLabs

Paradis on X

$MRVL to acquire $LITE in an all-stock transaction. - Implied enterprise value of $115 billion for Lumentum. - Lumentum stockholders will receive 4.5 shares of Marvell common stock for each share of Lumentum common stock. - This represents ~$1,132 per share of Lumentum common stock and a premium of approximately 23.9% based on each company’s price as of October 28, 2026. - Marvell stockholders will own ~67% of the combined company. Lumentum stockholders will own ~33%. - Matt Murphy to remain as CEO of the combined company. - Transaction expected to close in H1 2028, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Considering $LITE (that is sold out into 2029) is going to get swallowed up by $MRVL next week. I see $AAOI / $SIVE / $COHR are going to be a lot more strategically valuable in the West. Both for M&A prospects (which deserves a premium) so companies can vertically integrate like $AVGO. + players are going to be incentivized to qualify other light sources not owned by their competitor. $AAOI has a ton of optionality to supply CPO lasers in 2027 if they buy transceiver laser supply merchant, since they have the technology now. But 2028 they'll have capacity available AFAIK. AOI also had a lot of opportunities to sign LTAs but didn't, so there's a lot more uncertainty alongside the series of $600M ATMs. But we'll see how they're doing, especially with their 1.6T shipments... Laser chokepoint part of the optical supply chain is extraordinarily strong
@Mr_Neutral_Man

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

As with all over supply, time tends to take care of the problem. Im old enough to remember when SFH were generally thought if being in over supply forever Getting through this has taken wayyy longer than most folks imagined I’m waiting for $CPT to report. I kind of knew $MAA was gonna have tough/bad new/renewal mix I think it’s also part of their own fault where they push renewals too much
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

We've finally made it to November... holy crap October was brutal. Per Morgan Stanley data, the recent hedge fund de-grossing was the highest in the past 10 years. Exceeding the: - 2016 Chinese stock market crash - 2018 Volmageddon - March 2020 COVID crash - 2021 Archegos collapse / Evergrande crisis - 2022 bear market Goldman's prime brokerage desk reported on the 26th that it had also seen ~$20B of selling over 2 weeks vs. $23 billion during July's entire unwind. From $HOOD short interest data, from Sept -> Oct short float also increased from: $AAOI: 12.5% -> 19.84%+ $AEVA: 11% -> 25.64%+ $CBRS: 12.25% -> 20.12%+ $AEHR: 14.33% -> 17.93%+ $TSEM: 2.15% -> 4.73%+ $CIFR: 19.94% -> 25.39%+ $LWLG: 15.24% ->19.12%+ $OKLO: 17.72% ->22.93%+ $CRWV: 17.91% ->26.58%+ Substantial deleveraging coinciding with surging short interest, kinda looks like a July setup after Midterms? The recent rotation also kinda pushed names like $CRWD and cybersecurity to bubble valuations into hundreds of fwd P/E... Earnings on many AI capex + bottlenecks (not all like $INTC) looked strong: eg. $AXTI guided annualized Q4 = 23.7x P/E now, not including potential InP substrate hikes + capacity expansion that can compress it to single digits. - $SKHY (~$59B operating profit) casually making more than trillion dollar companies like Amazon ($28.1B operating profit), backed with 5Y LTAs. - No signs of $MSFT / $AMZN materially cutting capex, while $SPCX secures $40B more for GPU procurement. Slightly painful, but I think the AI capex trade (specifically photonics/memory) is a generational opportunity, with extreme volatility in between.

Investor Letters

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Trading Post November 5, 2026

MercadoLibre’s logistics expansion cut margins by 60 basis points, while Mercado Pago grew credit 62% with 7% NPLs.

MELI $77B
Cassandra Unchained 2 clicks

Intel: The CPU Comeback, Discounted

Intel's Q3 2026 results were hit by memory costs and an Israel shutdown, but enterprise AI inference could lift CPU demand as server…

INTC $287B
Monte Independent Investment Research 2 clicks

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #13: Nov 5, 2026

Florida marinas are 92% full as boat counts rise and permits constrain new supply, creating pricing power for existing operators such as…

SUI $14B
Trade Ideas Flow 6 clicks

eToro: Expanding Beyond Crypto

EToro trades at 2.89x EV/FCF with $304 million in trailing free cash flow, expanding from crypto into equities, commodities, currencies and…

ETOR $1.9B
Max Arnoldi 5 clicks
CHWY · long

Chewy INC

Chewy (CHWY) is presented as a long opportunity after a prior 2022 short thesis played out.

CHWY $9.2B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Oracle: The Party Is Almost Over

Oracle’s CDS spreads exceed 320 basis points as debt approaches $135 billion and fiscal 2027 capex targets $95 billion, amid heavy reliance…

ORCL $363B
David Desjardins 1 click

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