AppLovin 3Q26 Business Update: No Notes
AppLovin’s Q3 revenue rose 55% year over year as AXON model gains expanded margins, while ad take-rate compression remains the key competitive risk.
AppLovin’s Q3 revenue rose 55% year over year as AXON model gains expanded margins, while ad take-rate compression remains the key competitive risk.
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.
The industrial logic for the $UNF and $CTAS merger captured in one picture. Both have been going to the Chipotle (or same strip center) near our office in Houston on the same days at the same time (the store was closed at the time this pic was taken).
Tough end of the year in merger arb land $BATL, $RVNC, $X, $ACI, $CPRI
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
We went Long $BIRK this past weekend. The call was timed ahead of this print, which we thought would be well ahead. But the call is much bigger than beating the qtr. No reason why this won't compound to a double+ over TAIL duration.
Where are all the $RH haters/trolls this morning? <crickets> This stock could be $600 in short order, and it will likely STILL be a long!
Rich Howe hosted me on his new podcast. We talked about some of the spin-offs I've invested in: $VRTS, $JXN, & $VOYA.
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CHWY · long Chewy (CHWY) is presented as a long opportunity after a prior 2022 short thesis played out.
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AMSC and Datadog will be fine, while SiTime is worth a closer look.
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DigitalOcean reported Q3 revenue up 40% to $321 million and lifted Q4 guidance above consensus, while GPU and data-center expansion cut…
Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…
L3Harris booked $19.3 billion of Q3 orders, lifting backlog to $53.2 billion, raised FY26 guidance and cut its 2028 free-cash-flow target…
Oracle’s CDS spreads exceed 320 basis points as debt approaches $135 billion and fiscal 2027 capex targets $95 billion, amid heavy reliance…
Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…
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