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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Counterpoint on $MRVL / $LITE acqusition: - "Every buyer that competes with Marvell will want a second, independent laser source". They identify $SIVE / Scintil Photonics as new CW / ELS capacity, with names like $CRDO as potential partners of Sivers. - "With Lumentum sold out for years, the overflow goes to whoever has merchant capacity" Already said this before, but we'll likely see some incentive to diversify laser sourcing. Sivers was cited here, and comes online with 100M lasers / external foundry capacity (2:1 external/internal target). To demonstrate the sheer scale on that, $AAOI exit 2026 laser capacity target was roughly ~24M/year (but different blend). - "Module makers move upstream" was also another second order effect. $JBL as one example is now heavily competing with the combined Lumentum + Marvell.... There's other players like $SMTC that are explicitly doing M&A for expanding laser capacity. I don't think the overall AI valuation crash is representative of individual company strength in the optical sector. There's very compelling opportunities in the laser bottleneck in the upcoming year that I believe markets are mispricing.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

People on X (now YC companies included) learned that it’s easier to doompost for impressions. $SPCX + Elon wouldn’t be heavily building in the Neocloud space if they didn’t see the ROI. Samsung wouldn’t be selling 5-10Y LTAs to Chinese big tech, if Alibaba/Tencent/Bytedance saw memory overflooding in 2 years. $LITE wouldn’t be sold out into 2029 and announce new $5B UHP laser contracts if optical demand didn’t persist. It’s interesting seeing the very same people long $SNDK, $NBIS, to $COHR 2 months ago. Flip flop on every market narrative from the initial Iran War to the current “AI Bubble”. I’d argue 180x fwd P/E cybersecurity and biotech stocks are more of a bubble than 3 P/E memory companies with hyperscaler LTAs.

Investor Letters

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Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #13: Nov 5, 2026

Florida marinas are 92% full as boat counts rise and permits constrain new supply, creating pricing power for existing operators such as…

SUI $14B
Trade Ideas Flow 6 clicks
CHWY · long

Chewy INC

Chewy (CHWY) is presented as a long opportunity after a prior 2022 short thesis played out.

CHWY $9.2B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

CURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 4 clicks

Coupang: 3Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce growth rose 9% as data-leak effects fade, while management expects margins to return to pre-incident levels by…

CPNG $27B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

update on Gartner

Gartner’s growth has stalled after federal contract losses and cautious commercial spending, raising questions about its competitive…

IT $13B
scuttleblurb 1 click

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