Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Wednesday, November 4, 2026

Back to the front page

The Buyback Shows Up (ESRT Q3 2026)

Empire State Realty Trust repurchased $85.8 million of shares at $4.56 each, using 1359 Broadway sale proceeds to fund buybacks and debt reduction.

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 6 clicks

From X

@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

Haven't posted $AIRS thoughts since the Q2 miss. But after speaking to management and refreshing on the thesis here's an update: 1. The opportunity for post GLP1 procedures remains as large as ever. When a new "thing" starts trending, a business such as theirs with surgeons, devices, and rigid medical process can't just turn on a dime to capture the growing opportunity in a few months. It takes a little time and the management team is measured, disciplined, and thoughtful about the best way to pivot. Why? Because this is a health care setting where you don't just throw stuff at the wall. But... 2. ...Measurable evidence of the new are opportunities (skin removal, tightening etc) gaining momentum is emerging: Skin excisions grew 100% from Q4 and have increased within the mix going from Q4 4.3%, Q1 4.9% to Q2 5.9%. That's real evidence of progress on addressing a massive post GlP1 demand wave. 3. The announced partnership with Alloclae might be a GAME CHANGER as the fat transfer procedure is hitting the zeitgeist as we speak. Alix Earle has 14mn social media followers and the rumor mill consensus is that she just had the procedure done. Sure looks like it to me. 4. I was expecting them to announce a debt refi that didn't come. Disappointing, yes. But, I still believe it is coming and management said so too: "We recently signed an amendment exceeding the maturity of the facility to November 2027. At the same time, we continue to make progress refinancing. The continued stability in our business has allowed us to receive multiple-term sheets that we believe are aligned with our long-term interest and the maturity extension gives us additional time to achieve the right transaction." 5. Mgmt keeps talking about restarting store growth given low saturation and lack of presence in many notable markets such as Long Island, Tampa, etc. You don't wave new store growth in front of the market unless you think you are going to refi the debt and have some stuff cooking to reignite SSS. Maybe more promotional management teams would, but having gotten to know this team well, I am confident that they are not inclined to promote things that they don't have high confidence in. When Yogi became CEO he literally told me no plans to go on the road and meet with investors because they need stability first. Now its a total 180 on that point. 6. There's so much operating leverage here. If the new GLP1 related opportunities continue to gain momentum, and if they add 3 stores to the 31 store base, then we grow ebitda 41% next year. Today we are trading at just 4.9x past peak adj ebitda. In five years, why can't they expand to 40 stores? Based on the unit economics per store, they would then be in position to exceed prior peak earnings. This was a mismanaged business that got hurt by the early rapid onset of GLP1, but we now know that the other side of that demand wave comes with a whole new set of demand for aesthetic work. The opportunity is absolutely massive. And if this current team doesn't get it done, then given the long term filers in the name (PE, activists), I suspect that new owners would be happy to enter the picture. Meanwhile, the short interest remains high and the top five holders aren't going anywhere. *This is not advice, just our opinion. We are long AIRS but that can change at anytime.
@orrdavid

David Orr on X

$LULU's old brand was exclusive, high quality clothes. Curated for only the best thing. Back in 2015. Over time, they expanded a ton and from too-high of volume alone, it would have been impossible to keep quality high. Recently this spun out of control and quality is downright terrible. How can this problem possibly be fixed? Don't they use a zillion different suppliers? I don't think there are enough good ones to replace them, even if someone executed very well. On top of quality problems, they ruined the brand image with DEI garbage. I don't see how that is repairable, at least not for many years. And finally, the whole athleisure category is stale. Which is $LULU's entire brand. Point being, if I was management, I would see no path to turning this ship around within 5 years. And the remaining company at the end would be much smaller than it is today. And that'd be the good outcome, with any of the above three points being a failure mode anyway.

Investor Letters

All letters

New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Oracle: The Party Is Almost Over

Oracle’s CDS spreads exceed 320 basis points as debt approaches $135 billion and fiscal 2027 capex targets $95 billion, amid heavy reliance…

ORCL $363B
David Desjardins 1 click

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

SITC $192MCURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 5 clicks

Coupang: 3Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce growth rose 9% as data-leak effects fade, while management expects margins to return to pre-incident levels by…

CPNG $27B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

update on Gartner

Gartner’s growth has stalled after federal contract losses and cautious commercial spending, raising questions about its competitive…

IT $13B
scuttleblurb 1 click

Recycle Bin

Used aircraft engines can be repurposed as gas turbines, easing data center power constraints while tightening aviation supply.

EQT $33BRRC $12B
Doomberg 8 clicks
AMRZ · long

Amrize

Amrize (AMRZ) produces aggregates, cement and roofing materials across the US and Canada.

AMRZ $22B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $33B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals accelerates Redwing’s restart, targeting first gold this month and a ramp from 338 ounces monthly to 835 ounces by Q2 2027.

NAMM $46M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 76 of 280

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

359 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.