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Wednesday, November 4, 2026

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The Buyback Shows Up (ESRT Q3 2026)

Empire State Realty Trust repurchased $85.8 million of shares at $4.56 each, using 1359 Broadway sale proceeds to fund buybacks and debt reduction.

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 6 clicks

From X

@InvestSpecial

Dalius - Special Sits on X

$ONT first got hammered on what looked like a temporary earnings blip, completely overshadowing the potential sale thesis. Now another hit. A former employee alleges ONT helped downplay contamination from the 2023 East Palestine derailment. Stock is down another ~25%. It’s starting to look genuinely cheap, but the legal/regulatory overhang is hard to underwrite. A wider investigation, penalties or further civil claims could all follow, and the whole thing could easily complicate the sale process. Glad we didn’t commit here. Any thoughts on the potential exposure?
@convequity

Convequity on X

OpenAI’s TPU lesson makes me more cautious on $CBRS. Richard Ho, OpenAI’s hardware chief and a former TPU designer, says one lesson from Google was that “you have to make it programmable.” Models change too quickly to overfit the chip to one architecture. That caught my attention because TPU is already programmable. Groq statically schedules execution in its compiler, while Cerebras makes a different bet on wafer-scale compute and distributed local memory. The question is how much of the performance advantage survives when models change, including MoE routing and memory demands. Ho also wants hardware that can move across inference workloads without locking the fleet into fixed ratios of specialized machines. That matters when buyers are committing years of capex and power. If OpenAI and other large buyers increasingly favor that flexibility, I expect CBRS to remain a specialist over the next few years. The absolute market can still be large enough for Cerebras to build a very good business, but I’m more skeptical that its architecture becomes the mainstream choice. "As long as you’re willing to live with those limitations, they’re good. But if you’re able to make it programmable, then you have a lot of flexibility for adapting to change. And we had to adapt to change. TPU also adapted to different changes in the algorithm, even at that time with CNNs. Clearly now, in the world of LLMs and agents, the mix is changing pretty rapidly. So that was the pitfall we really wanted to avoid: to overdesign and overfit to one particular model. We looked at it in that context." ---[54] The Man Who Built OpenAI's First Chip TechTechPotato

Investor Letters

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New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Oracle: The Party Is Almost Over

Oracle’s CDS spreads exceed 320 basis points as debt approaches $135 billion and fiscal 2027 capex targets $95 billion, amid heavy reliance…

ORCL $363B
David Desjardins 1 click

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

SITC $192MCURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 5 clicks

Coupang: 3Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce growth rose 9% as data-leak effects fade, while management expects margins to return to pre-incident levels by…

CPNG $27B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

update on Gartner

Gartner’s growth has stalled after federal contract losses and cautious commercial spending, raising questions about its competitive…

IT $13B
scuttleblurb 1 click

Recycle Bin

Used aircraft engines can be repurposed as gas turbines, easing data center power constraints while tightening aviation supply.

EQT $33BRRC $12B
Doomberg 8 clicks
AMRZ · long

Amrize

Amrize (AMRZ) produces aggregates, cement and roofing materials across the US and Canada.

AMRZ $22B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $33B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals accelerates Redwing’s restart, targeting first gold this month and a ramp from 338 ounces monthly to 835 ounces by Q2 2027.

NAMM $46M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

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