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Tuesday, November 3, 2026

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TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $31B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

From X

@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

While rummaging through insider purchases last night, I came across a company that I almost discarded at first look. It scored poorly in our quantitive model (IA Score of 36), free cash flow was just a smidgen positive in 2025, debt on the balance sheet was growing and it remains unprofitable. Yet an independent director with deep industry experience was buying. This is his fourth insider purchase since joining the board in 2023 and he picked up $408,600 worth of stock according to the Form 4 filed yesterday. The company is California-based Alphatec Holdings $ATEC and they make a robotics platform focused on spinal surgery. The stock is down an astounding 62% over the last year. Dave Demski, the independent director that bought shares, used to previously be the COO and then the CEO of Globus Medical $GMED Globus Medical built a robotics platform to help with spinal surgery, hip reconstruction and more. During Demski's nearly 5 years as CEO of Globus Medical from 2017 to 2022, revenue increased from about $700 million to over $1 billion and the stock more than doubled despite the disruption due to COVID-19. So what made me take a closer look at Alphatec? I love companies that could be at a point of inflection and I'll let the income statement speak for itself. Last quarter the company almost broke even and free cash flow was positive. Year-over-year revenue growth was about 13% but it missed consensus estimates. For the full year they expected adjusted EBITDA of $137 million and free cash flow of $10 million. With an enterprise value of just $1.65 billion, I can see this company being an acquisition target for Medtronic $MDT, Zimmer, Boston Scientific or more importantly Globus Medical.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Compute & Accelerators screen (43 names). Our Rule of X = forward growth x a sector coefficient + free cash flow margin - SBC %. The coefficient starts from Bessemer’s 2.3 for software and is scaled by how much profit a sector earns per $ of growth versus its cost of capital. More profit and cheaper capital means growth counts for more. Compute mostly runs 2.3 to 2.7. Colours: green = high score, cheap, or price down (more upside from here). High score + attractive valuation + flat or falling price: $NVDA (DCF 91% discount), $AVGO (94%), $ASML (EV/FCF 24.8x). High score but priced for it: $AEHR (EV/GP 95x), $AMD (EV/FCF 125x). Data from Koyfin, prices at 30 Oct close. A screen, not advice. Do your own research.
@KEDM_COM 1 click

KEDM.com on X

More on #nicotine: While the market potential in the US is many times larger than in Sweden and Norway, the dynamics are very different. In Sweden, the market is mature and largely saturated, with pouch growth mostly cannibalizing Snus. In the U.S., it is more fragmented and experimental. The large players include Philip Morris $PM’s Zyn, British American Tobacco $BTI’s Velo and Altria $MO’s On!. There are some niche brands, of which Alp is the most notable because of its promotion by Tucker Carlson. It is owned by a JV between Tucker and Turning Point Brands $TPB. TPB is widely covered in our Discord channel, mainly by KEDM subscriber @stonksbusinessman.
@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Icahn owns ~33% himself if you count the Nomura swaps. The new Ares credit agreement limits buyers to 35% of shares outstanding, so $MNRO can let the poison pill expire and Icahn can immediately move the Nomura swaps to himself OR he could keep them as swaps and add another 16%+ of shares instead.... I digressed there a bit, but the initial point was going to be that they already technically own essentially 50%. DOMO Capital owns 1-2% of the outstanding shares as well...
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

$AAOI signs $194.4M/year contract with Yuunan Germanium. This is for 2027 alone, with a 5 year contract. Given an implied total of ~$970M in InP substrates over 5 years (before price hikes) Hmm just some thoughts: - AOI laser capacity expansion seems bigger than what’s disclosed based on procurement patterns? 180K wafers seems like an extreme amount compared to what’s needed for lasers within their own transceivers… if they can consume all of that So maybe we’ll hear about a new UHP laser contracts in earnings, after $LITE announced a $5B contract. - read through on $AXTI is positive, given they’ll probably be #1 in InP substrates manufacturing scale in the future + have contracts with $LITE and $COHR. - positive AOI was able to secure capacity during the bottleneck More spend is probably the boogeyman in the AI trade, but it’s a good signal for earnings.

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Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $5.4B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks
BSP · short

Bending Spoons Spa

Bending Spoons is a software and digital-assets holding company that has completed more than 50 acquisitions since 2013.

BSP $29B
Value Investors Club 1 click

FTAI Aviation Update, Part Two

FTAI Aviation’s $234 million Jereh JV deposit funds Power inventory, while customer concentration, lower cash guidance and pending U.S.

FTAI $20B
CV's Substack 4 clicks

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