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Tuesday, November 3, 2026

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TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $31B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

From X

@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

The 13% puke today is the market questioning whether $CVI is using peak-cycle earnings to justify a transformative acquisition (nearly doubling nameplate capacity). The $MPC assets may be attractive, but shareholders are absorbing dilution, additional debt, and the risk that refining margins normalize before the company can meaningfully delever… $CVI was always sub-scale, so there’s a legitimate strategic rationale here. The irony is that the best time to buy cyclical assets is usually when you can least afford to finance them…
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

U.S. inflation is still sticky, and it’s not only the government’s numbers saying so. Inflation shows up in both the government’s price indexes and the price of gold: → Growth × Policy: Core PCE inflation, the PCE price index minus food and energy, rose to 3.1% in September from 3.0% in August, 1.1% above the Fed’s 2% target. CPI inflation rose to 3.7% from 3.4%. I focus on core PCE because the Fed sets its 2% target on the PCE index, and leaving out food and energy, whose prices swing the most, provides a better read on where inflation is headed. → Charles Gave’s Four Quadrants (from Gavekal): At the end of October, an ounce of gold bought 42.5 shares of $IEF (a 7-10 year Treasury ETF) vs. a 7-year average of 26.3. That’s down from 47 at the end of September, since gold fell 6.9% in October while $IEF rose 3.1%. Gave reads gold beating bonds as the currency losing value, and gold has been beating bonds since March 2020. Gave’s framework still places the U.S. in an inflationary boom, where the U.S. has been since November 2023, apart from four weeks in March and April 2026. That’s the quadrant where he favors gold, commodities, real estate, value stocks, emerging markets and cyclicals with high fixed costs, and avoids long-duration bonds. These assets either rise in price with inflation or earn more when the economy runs hot, while long-duration bonds pay a fixed amount that inflation eats away. High Treasury yields don’t change that call, since Gave’s gold/IEF ratio divides the gold price by $IEF’s total return (interest included), and the ratio is still 61% above its 7-year average even after October.
@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

GameStop $GME is doing a Magic the Gathering meet up at stores across the board. Wall Street simply does not understand the significance of this as they don't follow nerdass card market and they definitely don't follow Hasbro $HAS and see how much their Magic the Gathering revenues are up. And they most certainly don't understand that GameStop is a card shop now because Wall Street suits are too busy going to the Peter Luger Steak house and ordering overpriced hunks of meat and a nice side of mashed potatoes while their big fat bellies fall over their legs and wives secretly hate them because they are too busy buried in their financial models and not their wives bosoms.
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

While rummaging through insider purchases last night, I came across a company that I almost discarded at first look. It scored poorly in our quantitive model (IA Score of 36), free cash flow was just a smidgen positive in 2025, debt on the balance sheet was growing and it remains unprofitable. Yet an independent director with deep industry experience was buying. This is his fourth insider purchase since joining the board in 2023 and he picked up $408,600 worth of stock according to the Form 4 filed yesterday. The company is California-based Alphatec Holdings $ATEC and they make a robotics platform focused on spinal surgery. The stock is down an astounding 62% over the last year. Dave Demski, the independent director that bought shares, used to previously be the COO and then the CEO of Globus Medical $GMED Globus Medical built a robotics platform to help with spinal surgery, hip reconstruction and more. During Demski's nearly 5 years as CEO of Globus Medical from 2017 to 2022, revenue increased from about $700 million to over $1 billion and the stock more than doubled despite the disruption due to COVID-19. So what made me take a closer look at Alphatec? I love companies that could be at a point of inflection and I'll let the income statement speak for itself. Last quarter the company almost broke even and free cash flow was positive. Year-over-year revenue growth was about 13% but it missed consensus estimates. For the full year they expected adjusted EBITDA of $137 million and free cash flow of $10 million. With an enterprise value of just $1.65 billion, I can see this company being an acquisition target for Medtronic $MDT, Zimmer, Boston Scientific or more importantly Globus Medical.
@KEDM_COM 1 click

KEDM.com on X

More on #nicotine: While the market potential in the US is many times larger than in Sweden and Norway, the dynamics are very different. In Sweden, the market is mature and largely saturated, with pouch growth mostly cannibalizing Snus. In the U.S., it is more fragmented and experimental. The large players include Philip Morris $PM’s Zyn, British American Tobacco $BTI’s Velo and Altria $MO’s On!. There are some niche brands, of which Alp is the most notable because of its promotion by Tucker Carlson. It is owned by a JV between Tucker and Turning Point Brands $TPB. TPB is widely covered in our Discord channel, mainly by KEDM subscriber @stonksbusinessman.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

$AAOI signs $194.4M/year contract with Yuunan Germanium. This is for 2027 alone, with a 5 year contract. Given an implied total of ~$970M in InP substrates over 5 years (before price hikes) Hmm just some thoughts: - AOI laser capacity expansion seems bigger than what’s disclosed based on procurement patterns? 180K wafers seems like an extreme amount compared to what’s needed for lasers within their own transceivers… if they can consume all of that So maybe we’ll hear about a new UHP laser contracts in earnings, after $LITE announced a $5B contract. - read through on $AXTI is positive, given they’ll probably be #1 in InP substrates manufacturing scale in the future + have contracts with $LITE and $COHR. - positive AOI was able to secure capacity during the bottleneck More spend is probably the boogeyman in the AI trade, but it’s a good signal for earnings.

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FTAI Aviation Update, Part Two

FTAI Aviation’s $234 million Jereh JV deposit funds Power inventory, while customer concentration, lower cash guidance and pending U.S.

FTAI $20B
CV's Substack 4 clicks
BSP · short

Bending Spoons Spa

Bending Spoons is a software and digital-assets holding company that has completed more than 50 acquisitions since 2013.

BSP $29B
Value Investors Club 1 click

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