Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Monday, November 2, 2026

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BMRN Earnings Review

BioMarin’s Q3 revenue rose 32% to $1.02 billion after the Amicus acquisition, while lower 2026 guidance and $2.8 billion of net debt weighed on earnings.

BMRN $11B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

From X

@ACapitalLP 1 click

A Capital on X

$FLEX looks interesting into the Axiom spin in Q1 2027. I think everyone can agree RemainCo is worth somewhere in the $40s, so the only real disagreement is what value to assign Axiom. You’re getting a cloud and power infrastructure business growing at gangbuster rates (80%+ FY28 revenue growth) that just raised $2bn of convertible preferred from General Catalyst at a $37.5bn EV… Meanwhile, at ~$77, the market is implying Axiom is worth ~$33/share. Some SOTP estimates have it north of $100. Obviously there are legitimate concerns around capex, working capital and FCF conversion, but that’s a pretty enormous disconnect. November 10 Investor Day should be interesting…
@convequity 2 clicks

Convequity on X

The usual explanation for CoreWeave’s credit pressure is that its loans outlast its customer contracts. The filings say otherwise. All of $CRWV’s debt is due before its current contracts end, though only just: $14.6B of notes falls due in 2031-32, as the last contract cash comes in. That distinction matters. For a GPU cloud, debt that outlives its contracts is the dangerous kind. When a contract ends the chips are old, and there is no contract left to borrow against. CoreWeave’s real problem is speed. Each new build needs fresh capital before the last one has paid for itself, and almost all of the debt sits with the parent company. $IREN has the opposite shape. Its Microsoft project loan is matched to the contract. The risk is $6.3B of convertible bonds due 2031-33, mostly after its contracted cash has ended. If IREN’s stock is high by then, bondholders will likely swap the bonds for shares. If it’s low, IREN has to repay them in cash. Which leads to an odd conclusion: slower AI demand growth could help both. Fewer new commitments would give finished projects time to earn back their cost.

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Microsoft: The $250 Billion Club

Microsoft’s widening gap between M365 Commercial revenue growth and seat growth eases concerns over Copilot monetization across its 400…

MSFT $3.9T
TSOH Investment Research 2 clicks
PRIM · long

Primoris Services CORP

Primoris Services, a $5 billion EPC contractor, has fallen about 60% from its peak.

PRIM $3.9B
Value Investors Club

Altria: Dutiful

Altria raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.66 to $5.74 and authorized more buybacks, while on! loses share as cigarette margins hold.

MO $130B
Invariant 2 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks

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